Erdogan’s Ambition: Turkey as Ukraine Peacekeeper and European Power Influencer

turkey Eyes New Role as Ukraine Peacekeeper Amidst Shifting Geopolitical Landscape

March 20,2025

By archyde News

As the war in Ukraine continues to reshape global alliances,Turkey is strategically positioning itself as a key player in European security,potentially serving as a crucial bridge between East and West. With a unique ability to engage with both Russia and Ukraine, Turkey’s potential peacekeeping role is gaining traction, even as questions linger about the future of U.S.-Turkey relations.

Turkey’s Perspective on U.S. Foreign Policy

Turkish officials have expressed a sense of resignation, rather than surprise, regarding shifts in U.S. foreign policy. The sentiment is that the united States hasn’t always been a reliable ally. However, this doesn’t translate into glee.

“The message Europeans hear among Turkish officials these days is surprise that anyone would be shocked at U.S. President Donald Trump’s revisionist foreign policy. For Turkey, the United States has never been a reliable friend. but there is also little trace of schadenfreude. The prospect of Trump’s America gifting Ukraine to Russian President Vladimir Putin and wrecking NATO is as troubling for Turkey as it is for the European Union and the United Kingdom.”

This quote underscores a critical point: Turkey views a weakened NATO and a destabilized Ukraine as detrimental to its own security interests. This perspective, though perhaps counterintuitive given past tensions, highlights the complex calculations driving Turkish foreign policy. For U.S. readers,this mirrors the internal debates within the United States about the role of NATO and the country’s commitment to international security.

For example, imagine a scenario where a major cyberattack cripples critical infrastructure in the U.S. Energy grid.If NATO’s Article 5 (collective defence) is weakened, the U.S. might find itself without the immediate support of its allies, underlining the real-world implications of a fractured alliance. This analogy helps U.S. readers understand Turkey’s concern for NATO’s integrity.

Seizing Opportunity: Resetting Ties with Europe

Despite concerns about U.S. foreign policy, Turkey sees the current geopolitical turmoil as a chance to strengthen its relationship with Europe.

Turkish policymakers also see the ongoing crisis as an opportunity to reset ties with Europe. Turkey has been openly flexing its muscles in the Middle East, where the fall of the Assad regime in Syria has enhanced its influence. But it is indeed also quietly becoming more aware of itself as a key stakeholder in European security, to.

This pivot towards Europe is not entirely new. Turkey has long sought closer ties with the EU, although accession talks have stalled. However, the ukraine crisis provides a new impetus for cooperation, especially in the realm of security.

Turkey’s Emerging Role as a Peacekeeper

Turkey’s unique position, having maintained ties with both Ukraine and Russia throughout the conflict, makes it a potentially valuable mediator and peacekeeper.

After a summit on March 6 hosted by the EU, Erdogan signaled that Turkish troops could eventually be deployed in Ukraine. Last week, military chiefs from more than 30 countries held talks in paris to discuss Ukraine’s security and the possibility of an international peacekeeping force—an idea championed by France and the U.K. Erdogan is nurturing ties with other key countries,too. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk was in Ankara on March 12 to discuss Ukraine and European security.

This potential deployment reflects a broader trend of Turkey projecting its military power beyond its borders. Over the past decade, Turkey has sent troops to Syria, Libya, and Azerbaijan, gaining valuable experience in conflict management.

Can Turkey perform the job of peacekeeper? There’s reason to think so. The past decade has seen Ankara send troops to various other countries, such as Syria, Libya, and Azerbaijan. In the first two cases, it has even come to blows with Russia—either the regular military or proxy forces like the Wagner Group. In Syria, Turkish forces ended up running joint patrols with the Russian military, too, to police a fragile peace around Idlib. Simply put, Turkey has accumulated important experience in managing conflicts with Russia. Erdogan and Putin, along with their top brass, have exchanged punches but have also sat at the negotiation table to craft solutions.

This track record demonstrates Turkey’s ability to navigate complex geopolitical situations and work with, or against, Russia when necessary. This experience could prove invaluable in a peacekeeping role in Ukraine.

Economic and Strategic Considerations

Turkey’s engagement with Europe is not solely driven by security concerns. Ankara also seeks to deepen its economic ties with the EU, particularly through an update to the 1995 Customs Union.

Turkey now hopes that security cooperation with Europe in Ukraine could spill into the EU-Turkey relationship. This could involve a wider security partnership based on containing Russia and underwriting stability in Europe. But Turks are also keen to negotiate an update of their 1995 Customs Union. Like Europe’s other trading partners, Turkey has been adapting to the European Commission’s Green Deal and adopting legislation in line with EU environmental standards to ensure unfettered access to the single market. But it would ultimately like an expansion of the trading benefits it currently enjoys.

This update would include expanding the Customs Union to cover services, in addition to industrial goods. For Turkey, this would help it transition to a knowledge-based economy and escape the “middle-income trap”.

Another key area of interest is defense. With Europe increasing its military spending, Turkish defense companies like Aselsan and Baykar (manufacturer of the Bayraktar drone) are eager to participate in the European defense market. The potential for joint ventures and access to EU defense funds is a significant incentive for Turkey to strengthen its ties with Europe.

the Visa Liberalization Stumbling Block

One of the key obstacles in EU-Turkey relations is visa liberalization.Despite promises made in connection with the 2016 refugee deal, Turkish citizens still face significant hurdles in obtaining Schengen visas.

turkish officials would also like to move forward on visa liberalization,a sore spot in the overall EU-Turkey relationship. The 2016 refugee deal—under whose terms Turkey receives billion of euros in exchange to hosting close to 4 million Syrians—was originally linked to a promise to make it easier for Turkish nationals to obtain Schengen visas.Yet little progress has been made as then. Right now, millions of turks who held special civil servant passports travel visa-free. But all others need to wait on long lines and provide volumes of paperwork to travel to the EU. At the same time, all other EU candidate countries—such as Georgia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo—can enter the EU without restriction.

This disparity creates resentment in turkey, especially given that other candidate countries enjoy visa-free travel to the EU.

Beyond EU Membership: A Privileged Partnership

Recognizing that full EU membership is unlikely in the near future, Turkey is exploring alternative models for its relationship with Europe.

Ankara would much prefer that reengagement with Europe be a package deal, not a one-off simply involving ukraine. To make progress, Erdogan should do away with an old shibboleth: that membership in the EU is an objective. The accession talks have stalled for over 15 years now. Turkey’s authoritarian drift—with the arrest this week of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu offers the latest evidence—and the fears of migration in Europe have long killed the process. Privately, Turkish politicians accept this reality and are ready to move on as their past acrimony wears off.

Instead, some form of the privileged partnership that Europe’s Christian Democrats envisaged for Turkey years ago as an alternative to accession is now in the works. Access to a deepened European Customs Union could be one pillar.Security collaboration, in Ukraine but also on issues such as defense procurement or rebuilding Syria, could be another.

this “privileged partnership” could involve closer cooperation on trade, security, and other areas of mutual interest, without the obligations of full membership.This model, similar to the UK’s relationship with the EU, would allow Turkey to maintain its strategic autonomy while still benefiting from close ties with Europe.

The Rule of Law and Democratic Norms

While closer ties between Turkey and Europe offer potential benefits, concerns remain about Turkey’s human rights record and democratic backsliding.The EU’s ability to hold Turkey accountable for upholding the rule of law is limited outside of the formal accession process.

Moving beyond the enlargement paradigm is not cost-free. The EU won’t be empowered to hold Turkey accountable for failure to uphold the rule of law and democratic norms. That includes complying with the European Court of Human Rights’ ruling on the landmark case of philanthropist Osman Kavala.

Though, some observers believe that domestic factors, rather than external pressure, will ultimately determine Turkey’s democratic trajectory.Recent developments, such as Erdogan’s loss in the 2024 local elections and potential progress in resolving the conflict in southeastern Turkey, offer glimmers of hope.

Conclusion: A New Chapter for Turkey and Europe

The current geopolitical landscape presents Turkey with a unique opportunity to redefine its relationship with Europe. By embracing a role as a peacekeeper in Ukraine, deepening its economic ties with the EU, and pursuing a “privileged partnership,” Turkey can become a key player in European security and stability. However, addressing concerns about human rights and democratic norms will be crucial for ensuring a sustainable and mutually beneficial relationship.

Confronted by Putin and Trump, Europe is being reconfigured. This is a chance for Turkey to become a full member of Europe’s club under a new set of rules. It should not let the opportunity go to waste.

What are the potential consequences of a weakened NATO for European security, given TurkeyS position within the alliance?

Interview: Turkey’s Strategic Pivot and the Ukraine Peacekeeping Possibility

Interview with dr. Elif Kaya, Geopolitical Analyst

Archyde News: Welcome, Dr. Kaya. Turkey is increasingly positioning itself as a potential peacekeeper in Ukraine. Can you give us yoru insights on this strategic move?

Dr. Kaya: Thank you for having me. Turkey’s unique position, maintaining dialog with both Russia and ukraine, offers a rare opportunity. It’s a complex situation, but Ankara sees a chance to enhance its influence and play a critical role in European security.

Turkey, NATO, and Shifting Alliances

Archyde News: How does turkey’s evolving relationship with the U.S.and NATO influence its approach to the Ukraine crisis?

Dr. Kaya: Turkish officials aren’t necessarily surprised by changes in U.S. foreign policy. The potential weakening of NATO and a destabilized Ukraine are concerns in Ankara. Turkey sees the potential for a weakened NATO as detrimental to its own security.

Economic and Strategic Considerations

Archyde News: beyond security, what economic factors are driving Turkey’s engagement with Europe?

Dr. Kaya: Turkey is keen on deepening economic ties with the EU, notably through updating the Customs Union to include services, not just industrial products. this could encourage economic growth, create a knowledge-based economy, and give access to the EU defense market.

The EU-Turkey Partnership

Archyde News: The article mentions a “privileged partnership” as an alternative to full EU membership. What would that entail?

Dr. Kaya: With full EU membership unlikely,Turkey is exploring a “privileged partnership.” This could mean deeper cooperation on trade and security. It would be a model akin to the UK’s relationship, allowing strategic autonomy while benefiting from close ties.

Challenges and the Future

Archyde News: What challenges does Turkey face in this new role,and what are the stakes?

Dr. Kaya: Concerns about Turkey’s human rights record and democratic norms remain. The EU must address these issues to ensure a enduring relationship. The key is to see if Turkey can leverage its position for stability in Europe.

Archyde News: Dr. Kaya, thank you for your time and insights. it’s a engaging and complex situation.

Dr.Kaya: My pleasure.

Reader Discussion

Archyde News: Considering the long-standing tensions between Turkey and the U.S., do you think a weakened NATO would ultimately be beneficial or detrimental to European stability? Share your thoughts in the comments below.