2023-07-16 03:30:00
The campaign towards the Simultaneous and Mandatory Open Primaries (PASO) in August began, amid a general lack of interest from citizens, more concerned about school holidays and the daily agenda of the economic crisis than an internal one. It was expected that in this instance the pre-candidates would stop talking so much among themselves and begin to dialogue more with the electorate about their proposals for the future, but for the moment the strategies continue to be aimed at polarizing and retaining the “hard” vote.
In a scenario that pollsters consider stabilized in “imperfect thirds” between Together for Change, Union for the Homeland and La Libertad Avanza (beyond minority expressions in specific districts), who has the greatest difficulty in combining the internal strategy with the general one seems to be the main opposing force, where the bid for the presidential candidacy between Patricia Bullrich and Horacio Rodríguez Larreta is very competitive and incorporates an aggressiveness that undermines their image of a viable government alternative.
Today’s elections in Santa Fe are a good example. There will be voted today in primaries to elect candidates for governor, where the “front of fronts” made up of JxC plus the Socialist Party would have a good difference over the ruling Peronism. However, the outgoing data is not the prospect of a change of political sign in the country’s third constituency, but the tough competition between Carolina Losada and Maximiliano Pullaro, which reflects the bitter national dispute at the provincial level, where Losada, aligned with Bullrich, has suggested that Pullaro, backed by Larreta, colludes or turns a “blind eye” to drug trafficking, in a province where security is a main concern. The fierce opposition dispute has given oxygen to Peronism, which hopes to regain ground. Losada fed the main fear in PvC: she pointed out that she would not support her rival if she is defeated.
According to various surveys, excessive internalism in JxC has earned him the loss of almost 13 points of support since the 2021 legislative elections, where he garnered about 42% of the votes nationwide. There were episodes of extreme tension that brought the coalition to the brink of breaking, such as when Larreta tried to add at the last minute the Peronist from Cordoba Juan Schiaretti, or in the dispute in Capital, where the menu included personal attacks and negative campaigns, like the one that dusted off old homophobic and anti-Semitic sayings by Jorge Rinaldi, that he should have gotten off Jorge Macri’s list of legislators. The conflict is such that Larreta and Bullrich gave up formally debating.
The constant fights between “hawks” and “doves” deteriorate the general image of the space and generate annoyance among its constituents. As a radical political scientist joked: “The PRO came to infect us with the vocation for power and we radicals ended up inoculating them with our passion for the inmates.” And the big question mark of space It is whether the winner of the PASO will manage to retain the loser’s vote for the general.
A troubled river, the cunning Sergio Massa tries to capitalize on his anointing as a UP “unity” candidate by publicizing his management, ignoring Juan Grabois and making gestures with the hard core of Kirchnerism, chicaning opponents and juggling to maintain optimism in a climate of uncertainty, strong exchange rate pressure and barely contained inflation. Javier Miley, that despite his missteps inside and the complaints about the sale of candidacies maintains a faithful identity electorate, hopes to activate the “ambulance” for injured from the fight in JvC.
A recent UBA survey indicates that Argentines are more ideologically complex than the “crack” that has divided politics these years. And, more than a turn to the right or to the left, it shows a request for profound change in the current situation of crisis and stagnation. It will be the task of the leaders to stop digging trenches and argue among themselves, to understand that no one has won the election and to dialogue with the citizens. to know how to interpret how much and what type of change is demanded.
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