2023-07-13 16:11:20
In a context of growing uncertainties generated by geopolitical tensions, climate change, price volatility and greater environmental and sustainability constraints, the agricultural outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the next decade will still be marked, despite a substantial increase in production, by a deterioration in food self-sufficiency and an increase in imports of the main food products. Compared to other regions of the world, SSA has a very specific dynamic, due to its sustained population growth rate but also its low incomes, as shown by the OECD and FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023 -2032 which identify the main global developments in terms of production, consumption and trade.
Doubling yields in SSA
Very significant progress should be made during the next decade in SSA with a major change, the reduction in the expansion of areas as a means of increasing agricultural production. Indeed, the OECD and the FAO anticipate that yield growth will almost double to 16% over the next decade, compared to 8% during the previous one. A higher rate than in other parts of the world but starting from a level that is often less than half the world average. ” Investments in locally adapted and improved crop varieties, increased access to fertilizers, but also the consolidation of land titles enabling mechanized agriculture on a larger scale will stimulate the growth of agricultural production says the report.
Over the next 10 years, crop, animal, fish and aquaculture production in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow by 24% in net value added. An increase that will come mainly from crop production, which will represent more than 70% of the total agricultural value in 2032. An increase in food production resulting from the intensification of practices, productivity gains and changes made to the mix of cultures. The areas will only increase by 7% in favor of roots and tubers, corn, rice, legumes and secondary cereals. This means that the rate of extension of cultivated areas will be halved compared to that of the previous decade.
The net value of livestock production is expected to grow by 27% over the next ten years. Much of this growth will be due to the dairy sector, which will gain an additional 10 million tonnes (Mt) by 2032, while the meat sector will increase by almost 3 Mt. This growth will be mainly driven by the expansion of the herd . Growth in fisheries and aquaculture production will be lower, around 8.7%.
As a result of increased production, by 2032, Sub-Saharan Africa will experience the highest growth in direct greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per year (1.7%), accounting for 16% of global direct emissions GHG from agriculture, but only 7% from plant and animal production.
So a clear increase in agricultural production, but the annual rate of increase will only be 2.2% per year and therefore less than population growth. Thus, the trend observed since 2015 will be confirmed over the next ten years with a drop in the value of production per capita.
Widening of the trade deficit for the main food products
Despite the increase in agricultural production in the broad sense in the coming years, its growth will remain insufficient to meet the needs of a growing population, so import dependence will be greater in the next decade. Food imports, mainly corn, rice, wheat and soybeans, are expected to reach $82 billion in 2032, 44% more than in 2020-22.
At the same time, exports of these same products will increase but less quickly, by 18%. Thus, the region’s trade deficit is expected to widen by a further 77% between 2022 and 2032.
If the share of disposable household income devoted to food were to continue to decrease in all regions of the world, it would remain the highest in SSA, representing on average 18% of expenditure in 2032 but much more in the least developed countries. which will make households vulnerable to income and food price shocks in the countries most affected by food insecurity. However, the OECD and the FAO anticipate a slight downward trend in real agricultural prices over the next decade.
Main indicators of sub-Saharan Africa
Source: OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023-203
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