publishedJul 20, 2022 at 3:46 p.m
energy blackmailWill Vladimir Putin turn off the gas in Germany tomorrow – and what if so?
On Thursday, after maintenance work on “Nord Stream 1”, Russia is supposed to deliver gas to Germany again. It is anything but certain that it will come to this.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen made it clear that she considers a complete stop to gas supplies from Russia to the European Union to be likely.
REUTERS
According to von der Leyen, a complete stop in deliveries would hit all EU countries hard. If the EU Commission has its way, EU states should be able to be forced to save gas in the event of a gas emergency.
REUTERS
Gas should flow through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline again by 6 a.m. on Thursday morning. Due to annual maintenance work, the most important gas pipeline to Germany has been idle for almost two weeks.
At least from the point of view of the operator Nord Stream AG, nothing stands in the way of completing the routine maintenance as planned. Otherwise, Nord Stream AG would have to inform the market in a specified manner. No such notification had been received as of Wednesday morning.
Can we breathe easy?
Were fears that Russia would not be able to turn on the gas tap again after the maintenance was wrong and could Germany and the other European gas markets and ultimately us breathe a sigh of relief?
At the tripartite summit in Tehran, Russian President Vladimir Putin initially reassured: “Gazprom fulfills its obligations, has always fulfilled them and is willing to continue to fulfill all its obligations.” However, Russia’s state energy giant Gazprom reduced gas deliveries to Germany to 40 percent of the daily maximum in June.
Putin’s leverage: A replacement turbine
The reason given was a broken turbine, which after a lot of back and forth has now been repaired and is in Germany. Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to use this turbine again as a lever, as he made clear in Tehran.
If Russia does not get the repaired turbine back, the throughput capacity threatens to drop again significantly at the end of July: “Then there will only be 30 million cubic meters a day.”
According to the German Ministry of Economic Affairs, the turbine is only a replacement turbine that was only planned to be used in September.
The whole discussion is thus an excuse for Moscow to cut gas supplies, as the German government has repeatedly confirmed. According to a spokeswoman, “everything is being done” to take the pretext of the turbine away from the Russian side.
Force “Nord Stream 2”?
Will that succeed? In Tehran, Putin has already mentioned another unit that is said to be in need of repair in connection with possible gas throttling at “Nord Stream 1”.
At the same time, the Kremlin boss in Tehran offered: “We still have a finished route – that’s Nord Stream 2. We can put it into operation.” The newly completed Nord Stream 2 pipeline has been idle since Germany suspended the permitting process for the pipeline’s operation due to the Russian attack on Ukraine.
«Europe gets crash course in Russian energy blackmail»
Putin has said in the past that the commissioning of “Nord Stream 2” could lower gas prices. It is feared that Moscow wants to force the commissioning of “Nord Stream 2” by throttling “Nord Stream 1”.
Against this background, it is not surprising that not only Germany is looking forward to tomorrow with (tense) excitement. One wonders how many agree with the conservative Wall Street Journal, which writes: “Europe is being given a crash course in Russian energy blackmail. The one thing you absolutely must not do is give in to the blackmailer – otherwise, Europe’s energy insecurity will only get worse.”
The scenarios for Thursday
«What now for Europe? In the best-case scenario, politicians, agitated by this week’s shock, will press ahead with their plans for realistic alternatives. This includes liquid gas deliveries from other countries or, as in the case of Germany, the continued operation of the last three nuclear power plants.
The danger is that the politicians will instead increase the pressure on Kyiv to negotiate a solution on Kremlin terms. French President Emmanuel Macron appears open to the idea, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz would not need much convincing, and Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Draghi may not have been in power long enough to take a firm line. What a mistake that would be. Europe gets a crash course in Russian energy blackmail. The one thing you absolutely must not do is give in to the blackmailer – otherwise, Europe’s energy insecurity will only get worse.”
(gux)