According to an article by the Policy Center For The New South (PCNS), a new surge in international energy prices is not excluded in the short term, in the wake of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
« Faced with the major geopolitical instability represented by the situation in Ukraine and the great difficulty of predicting the scope and precise effects of the sanctions that are (or will be) taken once morest Russia, it is particularly difficult to predict the evolution of energy prices writes Yves Jégourel, the author of this article.
And to underline in this respect the presence of bearish factors, in the forefront of which the imminent prospect of an Iranian nuclear agreement, which might augur a gradual return of crude oil from this country on the international markets.
The second factor to be taken into account is linked to American production, itself often very reactive in periods of rising prices, he noted, noting that “if this fell in 2021, due to under-investment by American producers and Hurricane Ida, it should increase in 2022 and 2023 according to the American Energy Information Agency (US IEA), to reach the record level of 12.6 Mb /d in 2023”.
M.B.
