end of game for PiS, the centrist and pro-European opposition wins the legislative elections

2023-10-16 05:46:00

[Article publié le dimanche 15 octobre 2023 à 22h15 et mis à jour à 07h46] This is the start of a new era for Poland. In power since 2015, the Law and Justice (PiS) party lost the legislative elections on Sunday. According to exit polls, the three pro-European centrist opposition parties (Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition, the Third Way Christian Democrats and the Left) won 248 seats out of 460 in parliament. They thus won the majority, defeating the nationalist populists in power (212 seats for the PiS) and the far right combined. For Donald Tusk, the leader of the opposition, it is the “ the end of PiS rule. »

“Poland won, democracy won, we chased them out of power (…) it’s the end of this bad period, it’s the end of PiS rule,” he declared immediately following the polls were published.

Aged 66, Donald Tusk was Prime Minister of Poland between 2007 and 2014 and President of the European Council between 2014 and 2019. He promised to restore good relations with the European Union and to release European funds frozen by Brussels, in due to disputes that arose during the two terms of the PiS government. He also assured his intention to liberalize the right to abortion, a major point of disagreement with the PiS government which has emphasized Catholic values.

Conflict in sight with the president?

The leader of PiS, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, welcomed the relative success of his movement which will have 200 parliamentary seats, but without a majority to form a government. “ Whether we are in power or in opposition, (…) we will not allow Poland to be betrayed “, he nevertheless warned. According to Stanislaw Mocek, political scientist and president of Collegium Civitas University, there is now “ a chance for an opposition government to emerge ». « I think this is actually the end of the PiS government (…). It is a chance for us to rebuild our position, above all in Europe “, did he declare.

Michal Baranowski, an analyst at the German Marshall Fund, estimated that Poland might now “ return to the decision-making center of the European Union “. He added that the exit poll suggested the possibility of a “ stable opposition government “. However, analysts also warned that any government coalition formed by the opposition might face frequent conflicts with President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally.

The exit poll numbers do not give potential opposition allies the three-fifths majority required to overturn presidential vetoes. Turnout was high – with the exit poll estimating the national rate at 72.9%. “ The turnout is probably, by far, the highest in the history of the Third Republic “, in 1989 this rate was 62.7%, Sylwester Marciniak, president of the National Electoral Commission, declared to the press.

The PiS nevertheless leads in the polls

Before the vote, the PiS was however credited with 32 to 34%, a few points more than the Civic Coalition (KO). But the opposition continued to narrow the gap. As a result, a coalition government of liberals, left and centrists became more and more credible. For many, “ it was the most important election since 1989. Because what is at stake is the future of democracy in Poland and the future of Poland as a democracy and the rule of law », Declared before the vote to AFP Dorota Dakowska, professor of political science at Sciences Po Aix-en-Provence (France).

Earlier this month, Donald Tusk managed to bring together hundreds of thousands of people in the streets of Warsaw in an unprecedented show of force. Nonetheless, he has focused his campaign on rural areas and small towns where support for the ruling party remains strong, emphasizing the economy. The inflation rate remains high in Poland, with the EU forecasting 11.4% in 2023, while growth will be weak, at +0.5% of GDP.

Personal attacks

PiS focused on security and national sovereignty. Additionally, he launched personal attacks once morest Donald Tusk himself, accusing him of being unpatriotic and representing the interests of Moscow and Berlin. The leader of PiS, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the real holder of power in Poland, even described Donald Tusk as “ personification of absolute evil » and accused him of “ national treason “. State media and the regional media network controlled by energy giant Orlen amplified these attacks.

In terms of foreign policy, a new PiS victory would have aggravated tensions and made Poland an even more unpredictable partner within the EU. The current government has indeed remained at loggerheads with Brussels for years, mainly due to judicial reforms seen as an attack on democracy and the rule of law, but also due to restrictions on media freedom and rights. migrants. Its relations with Ukraine are also fragile, although Poland has until now been one of the main supporters of kyiv invaded by Russia.

More than a million Ukrainian refugees

Poland has taken in more than a million Ukrainian refugees, sent quantities of weapons and aid there, and plays the key role in transiting Western supplies. But Warsaw’s decision to stop imports of Ukrainian grain to protect its own farmers angered kyiv, and in a high-profile diplomatic row, Warsaw threatened to restrict its arms deliveries. President Duda went so far as to compare Ukraine to a “ drowning man » and who might pull his rescuers underwater.

This rhetoric was probably aimed at winning nationalist votes, but it also reflected the “ war weariness » among the Poles. A recent poll found that around 40% of Poles are opposed to extending provisions allowing Ukrainians access to the labor market, health care, education and social benefits.

PiS has presented the election as a choice between security in the face of unfettered migration, which its opponents support, and creeping Westernization which it sees as contrary to Poland’s Catholic character.

« This election will show whether Poland will be governed by the Poles, or by Berlin or Brussels “, PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski told his supporters during the party’s final campaign rally on Friday.

Since coming to power in 2015, the party has been accused of undermining democratic checks and balances, politicizing the courts, using state media to spread its own propaganda and stoking homophobia. PiS rejected these accusations and denied wanting to leave the EU. The party says its reforms aimed to make the country and its economy more equitable, while removing the last vestiges of communism. He has built his support on generous welfare payments, and says rival parties will end them.

Cancel PiS reforms

Former President of the European Council Donald Tusk, campaigned on promises to reverse PiS reforms, hold its leaders accountable and resolve conflicts with Brussels over democratic rule. Donald Tusk says his party will maintain social assistance.

Whoever wins, rating agencies said it will be difficult to reverse pledges to increase social spending, raising questions regarding public finances and making markets nervous.

Foreign investors withdrew $2.3 billion from domestic government bonds and held less than 15% of outstanding bonds in July, the lowest level in more than a decade and below the historical average of 20 %, according to JPMorgan calculations.