Employment data scenarios.. Are the markets in the process of a new surprise, as happened yesterday?

2023-07-07 08:43:00

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Investing.com – The markets are awaiting the release of data for the month of June, today, Friday, at 15:30 KSA, which is expected to have a strong impact on the movements of the US dollar and gold, in addition to its expected strong impact on the stock markets and the upcoming, and the following is a look at The expected data and how it affects the dollar and gold trading.

The markets were surprised, as US private sector payrolls rose to record the largest monthly increase since July 2022, as it increased by 497 thousand jobs in June, which is more than the downwardly revised number of jobs for May of 267 thousand, and more than double expectations of 228 thousand.

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Key employment data scenarios

Market expectations indicate that the interest rate hike will continue to negatively affect the upcoming US labor market data. According to expectations, the US economy is likely to add regarding 225,000 jobs. Expectations also indicate a wage growth of 0.3%, in addition to a slowdown in the unemployment rate at 3.6%, compared to the previous reading of 3.7% in May.

The scenarios for the US employment market data are represented in positive data, which is the first scenario, and that it comes better than expectations, as the economy adds many jobs, unemployment decreases less than the expected rate and less than the previous reading, and wages grow at a very strong pace, and this positive scenario for labor market data may present Strong support for the dollar index towards the 103-point level, and it may head towards the 104-point level or higher than that, because this scenario will give the US Federal Reserve more flexibility with regard to continuing to raise interest rates during the next May meeting, and on the contrary, it will be affected on the other hand.

While the second scenario is represented in the negative US employment data and that the economy adds jobs less than expected and that unemployment rises higher than expected, and in this way, the dollar may retreat towards the level of 102 points or less than that, because this scenario will make the Fed fear of raising interest rates, He may wait for the next inflation data to be issued in order to take a decision regarding the interest rate at the next meeting, and this will have a negative impact on the dollar and positively on gold.

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An important bundle of data

Today’s major employment data comes following an important package of economic data was released on Thursday. Where he reported that the economy added 497 thousand jobs for the month of June, while experts expected the addition of 228 thousand jobs. The previous April reading was revised to 267 thousand from 278 thousand.

While it recorded 248 thousand applications, higher than the expectations of experts who expected 245 thousand. Especially since it recorded 239 thousand the week before last, but this reading has been revised to record now 236 thousand.

On the other hand, the US economy provided approximately 9.824 million jobs in June, according to the employment opportunities report, while experts expected the creation of 9.935 million jobs. After recording 10.103 million job opportunities in the previous reading, it was revised to 10.320 million job opportunities.

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