Elon Musk said that Starship will grow to 150 meters

According to Musk, advances in the reusability of the Starship spacecraft will reduce the cost of each launch to $3 million – launches will cost three times less than the launch of the Falcon 1 rocket in 2004, if adjusted for inflation. Back then, one launch cost $5.9 million, which equates to about $9.5 million in 2024 money. “These are kind of unimaginable numbers. No one ever thought this was possible, but to achieve this we will not break any laws of physics. So it’s in [допустимых] limits without violating the laws of physics. We can do this,” the businessman is confident.

Musk talks about the progress of the Starship project at least once a year, highlighting the progress the company is making on plans to settle Mars. Since last year, SpaceX has already launched three giant rocket launches, demonstrating progress. He did not comment on delays in the launch of Starship as part of NASA’s Artemis lunar program. Until recently, the Artemis 3 landing mission was planned for 2025, but NASA postponed it to 2026. The reason for this was not only the unavailability of Starship, but also problems with the development of spacesuits and the Orion spacecraft.

Musk’s words about the Artemis mission related to Starship’s functions: the spacecraft’s entry into orbit and orbital fueling – all of which have yet to be tested in three test flights. “It will be <..> “very important for the Artemis program and NASA’s return to the Moon,” Musk said. He also described “Lunar Base Alpha” with ships “specialized for flights to the Moon and back”: due to the absence of an atmosphere on the satellite, they would not need either a heat shield or stabilizers. In his 45-minute speech, Musk also touched on the topic of Mars, more precisely, the issue of mass sending cargo there for future settlers – for this, according to him, several thousand launches will be required.

To date, SpaceX has completed 327 successful launches of Falcon series rockets, and about 80% of them were made with reused boosters, a key factor in keeping costs down. Today the company is the most active space operator. This year, SpaceX expects to send about 90% of its total orbital mass, while China, the second player, will account for 6%.

Starship’s fourth flight, expected to take place in May, will have the Super Heavy first stage land on “essentially a virtual platform” in the Gulf of Mexico. Once the company does this, the possibility of landing at the Starbase launch site will be considered – after the fifth launch. Musk estimated the chances of success of the fourth launch at 80–90%. But still, first you need to carry out two controlled landings on water in a row. “We don’t want to throw trash into Mexico or the United States. I assume that we will probably be able to reuse Starship next year,” said the head of SpaceX.

Musk intends to conduct several more Starship launches this year and expects the company to build six more Starship spacecraft by the end of the year. It will open a new plant in 2025, which will speed up production. Prospective versions of the ship include Starship 2, capable of launching up to 100 tons into low Earth orbit, and the 150-meter Starship 3 rocket with a payload capacity of 200 tons. Large ships, Musk emphasized, will help reduce the number of orbital refueling missions, which is important for the future Mars program .

Of course, all of these plans are “pretty much a success-oriented schedule.” Each Starship launch must receive approval from the US Federal Aviation Administration, and environmental concerns about Starship’s environmental impact in the area near Starbase will have to be addressed. And this impact will only grow, because every two years, as Earth and Mars approach each other, up to ten launches will be required per day. According to Musk, there will be approximately a million people on the Mars base – he spoke about this back in 2017. And he expects to begin settling in “in 20 years.” Musk said the same thing in 2011.