2023-10-19 09:13:47
Should we fear new tensions on the electricity market this coming winter? Asked regarding this on Thursday in La Matinale de la RTS, Laurent Nanzer, the head of the Swiss market at Axpo, the country’s largest producer, believes that supply will be less delicate than last year.
A year ago, when energy prices were soaring, the Federal Council had to support the Axpo group, which was going through a liquidity crisis. But the energy company completed the first half of this year with exceptional results, boosted by the lull on the markets, without even having touched the guarantees of the Confederation.
“A few years ago, we sold our production at a loss. When we made losses, we might hardly invest. Freeing up margins allows us to invest, for example in new renewable energies,” explains Laurent Nanzer.
He adds that 70% of investments are made in Switzerland, even though the group is also active internationally. “This also benefits the security of supply in Switzerland,” he emphasizes.
A priori no risk of shortage
Winter 2023-2024 also promises to be less tense on this front than during the previous cold season. “I am reasonably positive,” says Laurent Nanzer.
“Last year, we were in a situation of shortage, with dams which had not been able to fill sufficiently, gas reserves which were very low, [le gazoduc] Nord Stream having been destroyed, and a nuclear park [français] mostly at a standstill. We are not in this situation this year. […] Unless we have an extremely harsh winter, it should pass,” he explains.
The recent Indian summer is also “relatively anecdotal” for hydroelectricity, he specifies, because the filling of the dams takes place over the entire year. However, he emphasizes that he does not want to get too far ahead in his predictions, because anything can still happen.
Prices that might fall
Despite the relatively optimistic outlook, prices continue to rise for households. The federal electricity regulator, Elcom, estimates this increase at 18% on average next year. According to Laurent Nanzer, the situation should however become more favorable in the future.
>> Read regarding it: The electricity bill will increase by an average of 18% in 2024
“Prices are dependent on many factors,” he recalls. In 2022, the war in Ukraine, which disrupted gas delivery, the shutdown of French nuclear power plants and the low water level for dams contributed to increasing prices, insists the Axpo executive.
Today, the situation has changed: “The dams are full. It seems that in France, nuclear production is good. We are much more calm. This should lead to falling prices”, maintains Laurent Nanzer.
>> Read also: “We should see a gradual drop in the price of electricity”
“No crystal ball”
To hear it, however, it will be necessary to wait some time before households notice a reduction in their electricity bill, because companies in the sector plan their prices over several years, in order to smooth prices.
Laurent Nanzer warns once once more that he does not have a “crystal ball”. The future is difficult to predict. As an example, he mentions the conflict in the Middle East, which, if it spreads, will cause hydrocarbon prices to rise.
Comments collected by Pietro Bugnon
Adaptation web: ami
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