The sobriety efforts required of consumers are already visible in the graphics. RTE, the French electricity transmission system operator, publishes weekly synthesis consumption in the country.
“In the first half of 2022, electricity consumption at normal temperature remained close to pre-health crisis levels (lower by around 1% to 2%)”, say the authors of the report. From September, on the other hand, the trend is downward; an effect that “confirmed and intensified since October”.
The week of December 11, consumption shows a decrease of nearly 10% compared to the average for the years 2014 to 2019. Over the last four weeks, this structural drop represents around 9%. In this context, the Ecowatt signal, which makes it possible to alert consumers of voltages, even possible cuts under control on the network, has for the moment remained green.
A decline driven by all sectors
To identify a structural reduction in the level of electricity consumption, RTE makes two types of corrections to the raw data collected:
- Meteorological. Electricity demand is very sensitive to temperature variations, in particular due to heating needs. In winter, for each degree less, the power drawn by the network increases by 2,400 megawatts (MW). To compare consumption from one year to another, it is therefore necessary to relate it to a reference temperature for the period. Statisticians use a “weighting of normal seasonal temperatures from Meteo-France. “This is the consumption that would have occurred if the temperatures had been aligned with the normal temperatures for the period”summarizes RTE.
- Calendar. Electricity consumption reflects the daily lives of consumers. It therefore varies greatly between a weekday, a weekend and a public holiday. “The consumption history is therefore adjusted so that the historical weekdays correspond to the weekdays of this year”, explain the authors. In addition, the restrictions linked to the Covid-19 crisis have influenced French consumption. It is therefore appropriate to compare the figures for 2022 with an average envelope calculated over the years preceding the crisis (2014-2019).
Once these precautions have been taken, RTE is able to confirm, “including during the cold period, (…) the real effect of the sobriety actions taken”. These efforts were first seen in the industry, in the fall, “in a context of rising energy prices”. It now concerns all sectors. “The most recent figures – collected during the cold period of the last few days – show that the drop in consumption also concerns the residential sector (majority in volume) and tertiary”writes the manager.
In his analysis on the passage of winter for the electrical system, updated on November 18, RTE plans “a risk of using the Ecowatt system (and in particular the red alert signal), (…) high in January »who “will largely depend on weather conditions and the possible occurrence of even a moderate cold spell”. On the production side, room for maneuver will indeed be limited in the heart of winter – delays in bringing shut down nuclear reactors back into service, less gas availability in Europe.