Obligations imposed on the basis of incorrect forecasts, radical choices and demonization of diesel engines: step by step, this is how Brussels brought one of the most important industries on the continent to its knees
Gianluigi Giannetti
21 October 2024 (modified 22 October 2024 | 08:30) – MILAN
And bad timing. Glamorously wrong forecasts by community institutions on the sales of electric cars take off which has not yet arrived and is scientific demonization of diesel oneswhich paradoxically could have provided a large-scale contribution, with their lower level of CO2 produced compared to petrol ones. Europe is in chaos, the industry has need certainties to plan investments and customers they don’t like impositions and compromises. Let’s summarize them all the moves from Brussels that left the car broken down.
Euro 7
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With the publication last May in the Official Journal of the European Union of regulation 2024/1257, the race for the new legislation on vehicle emissions officially began Euro 7intended to replace and expand Euro 6 in force from 1 September 2014. Euro 7 will instead come into force from September 1, 2025 for cars and vans, with the car manufacturers will have 30 months to comply. What has changed is the maximum limit for nitrogen oxides NOx, raised to 60 mg/km also for diesel cars, today at 80 mg/km, but identical to what already happens for petrol cars. The planned tests, however, are more rigorous and now cover a much greater number of driving conditions, starting from those at altitudes of up to 1,800 metres, at temperatures of up to 45 degrees centigrade and above all with acceleration with a cold engine. Euro 7 also introduces limits on emissions produced by tire wear and brake pads, with an expected reduction of up to 27% compared to current findings. The substance is that, according to the almost unanimous opinion of sector analysts, a limited benefits for the environment would correspond to a considerable increase in industrial costs to adapt the cars, calculated at 1,900 euros for petrol models and 2,600 euros for diesel ones. In both cases, a figure well above the forecasts of the European Commission, which estimated the increase at a maximum of 450 euros.
Electric cars: Fit for 55
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At the end of a journey that began on 14 July 2021, the day of the presentation of the “Fit for 55” plan, on 28 March 2023 the European Council approved the regulation that marks the future of mobility in the direction of battery-powered vehicles. In essence, it is expected block on the sale of cars with combustion engines in the 27 EU countries starting from January 1, 2035. All this not without a change deemed decisive, namely the provision of a “review stage”, one review clause which obliges the Commission by December 2026 “to monitor the gap between the emission limit values and real data on fuel and energy consumption”. The approval of the “Fit for 55” plan also brought with it a concessionthe generic openness to the use of combustion engines powered by synthetic fuelsi.e. obtained from carbon dioxide taken from the atmosphere and hydrogen obtained from water. As it stands, they have exorbitant costs and they do not appear to be a viable alternative. Meanwhile, the average of electric cars sold out of the totalin the first 8 months of the year at continental level, corresponds to 14%.
Cafe
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Il public enemy number one it had been well known for some time, but it was the failure to take off of electric car sales in Europe that triggered the emergency. Its technical name is Corporate Average Fuel Economyshortened to a friendlier Cafebut translatable into the obligation imposed on all car manufacturers to market models that consume less fuelmeasuring the result in lower CO2 emissions. The new limit established by the Cafe legislation, intended to come into force from January 1, 2025corresponds to approximately a 95 grams of CO2 per kilometreaverage figure calculated on the totality of models put on the market in the European Union by each individual manufacturer. The current Cafe legislation instead allows a maximum limit higher than 110 grams. It goes without saying that, to stay within 95 grams, companies should amassively increase the percentage of electric cars sold out of the totalhypothesis that the market doesn’t seem to allow it. Otherwise, there is a fine of 95 euros for each gram of excess, to be multiplied by the total sum of cars sold in the year. According to financial analysts at Barclays bank, car manufacturers risk paying more overall 10 billion euros in fines for 2025 only.
What will we drive?
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Three “enemies” of the car in Europe, two different possible solutions to get out of the crisis where it appears to have been parked: this is the real point that politics and companies will have to discuss in the coming weeks. If the use of the review clause is already a topic of discussion Review Stage to rediscuss by 2026 block on the sale of cars with combustion enginespossibly bringing the procedure forward to 2025 as requested for example by the Italian government, the scenario appears much more complex defuse Euro 7 and above all the legislation Cafe on CO2. Both have the form of a Regulation, i.e. an act that is directly applicable in individual countries like a national law. It is impossible to cancel it, except with a procedure that leads to the approval of a further repeal or amendment Regulation, certainly not in the short timescales that appear necessary. More feasible to call into question article 122 paragraph 1 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Unionwhich in essence can allow you to suspend or delay the effectiveness of a Regulation in the event of an emergency of a national nature, or of a general and economic nature. It doesn’t seem difficult to say how much European automotive and its 13 million jobs are in danger.
The Diesel Dilemma: How Brussels Steered the Auto Industry into Chaos
By Gianluigi Giannetti
Published: October 21, 2024 (modified October 22, 2024)
Ah, Brussels. Known for its waffles, great beer, and now apparently, the knack for making one of Europe’s key industries feel like it’s been blindsided by a double-decker bus. When we talk about diesel engines, it seems like Brussels has taken a very specific and radical approach: demonization! You’d almost think diesel engines were plotting to overthrow the European Parliament.
We all love a good underdog story, but it turns out the forecast for electric cars has been as reliable as a weather report promising sunshine in Scotland. Apparently, electric cars were meant to be the shining stars of the automotive world, but they’ve barely made a dent—14% of the market, to be precise. Let’s not kid ourselves; that’s about as impressive as an underwhelming debut album.
Euro 7: The New Emissions Legislation That Sounds Like It Was Named After a Failed Sports Car
So, let’s dive into this Euro 7 regulation nonsense that’s all the rage. Debuting in the Official Journal of the European Union—yes, that prestigious publication known for its light bedtime reading—this regulation is set to replace Euro 6. It’s like trying to toss the old records for a hot new mixtape but ending up with a cassette. Coming into effect in 2025, it promises stricter emissions controls that’ll surely break the bank for manufacturers. They need to cough up almost €2,600 for diesel models alone, whereas our friends at the European Commission thought it would only cost €450. Nice to see they’ve got their heads in the clouds!
Fit for 55: EU’s Plan Sounding More Like an Early 2000s Boy Band
Then there’s “Fit for 55,” which sounds like an exercise program from the ’90s, but no! This is about banning combustion engine sales by 2035. Poor internal combustion engines! It’s like they’ve been voted off the island just for being… un-electric! Of course, there’s a review clause. But the jury’s still out on whether these electric cars will make enough of a splash in the market for drivers to not feel like they’re hopping into a glorified toaster. I say, heaven help us if our electric cars are as reliable as that last relationship!
CAFE Legislation: Not Just a Place for a Cuppa
Now, before we move on, let’s take a quick peek at CAFE legislation. The “Corporate Average Fuel Economy” law—more commonly known as a “Nightmare on Wheels”—demands car manufacturers keep their CO2 emissions below a mandatory limit. Imagine being slapped on the wrist every time your car emits a little too much CO2. It’s like saying, “Hey, your car is too fat!” If manufacturers can’t sell enough electric models, they’ll face fines massive enough to make your wallet cry louder than your diesel engine. In 2025 alone, analysts suggest fines could reach a staggering €10 billion! No pressure, guys!
The Future of Driving: Two Solutions, One Messy Problem
So, what’s the takeaway from this tire fire of an automotive landscape? Well, Europe’s facing a bit of a pickle. Do we stick to our guns with the strict regulations and keep sending combustion engines into exile, or do we loosen the grip before steering off a cliff? There’s the option of employing the review clause to maybe delay things—anyone want to risk that rollercoaster ride?
One thing’s clear: we’ve put the car industry in a tough spot. With about 13 million jobs on the line, it’s time for a serious rethink. After all, we wouldn’t want the auto industry to end up like that classic film “Gone with the Wind” only to realize they left before their sequel, “Gone with the Emissions.”
