Electoral Risk in Municipalities: An In-Depth Analysis of High-Risk Regions and Threats to Democracy in the Pacific

2023-10-21 06:23:08

For example, in municipalities in the Pacific there are community confinements, which would prevent a full democratic exercise. Andrés Mauricio Vega, coordinator of the MOE Observatory, points out that the most complex regions in these elections are “Catatumbo, southern Bolívar, Magdalena Medio, Bajo Cauca and northeast Antioquia, Chocó, where 76 percent of the municipalities have a level risk, South Pacific and Cauca, Putumayo, Caquetá, southern Meta and Guaviare, as well as some municipalities on the coast, such as Montes de María, and others in La Guajira.

According to the MOE’s ‘Maps and electoral risk factors 2023’, in Bolívar there are at least ten municipalities on the list. This makes the department one of those that present the most electoral risk.

Alert for threats to candidates in different municipalities of the country. Threat and voting reference image. | Photo: Photo 1: Getty. Photo 2: Guillermo Torres Serna/Semana.

In fact, at the national level it is located among the top six places, with a 21.7 percent risk, that is, the equivalent of 10 of its 46 municipalities. Arenal, Cantagallo, El Carmen de Bolívar, Montecristo, San Fernando and San Pablo are the municipalities with the highest rates. The other red dots are in Atrato, Lloró, Bajo Baudó and the Litoral del San Juan, in Chocó, as well as the rural area of ​​Argelia, Guapi and Timbiquí, in Cauca.

The Ombudsman’s reportThe Ombudsman’s Office presented the ‘Follow-up report on electoral early warning 030 of 2023’, in which it reveals a significant increase in the number of violent actions that affect communities before the elections on October 29 .

In August, when the entity presented Early Alert 030 on the electoral context, it indicated that 113 municipalities were at extreme risk and 286 at high risk. More than two months later, the map shows that the risk remains in those places and that, additionally, violent events increased in the warned regions.

Elections in several municipalities in the country are at risk. | Photo: Sebastian Barros/NurPhoto

“In just two months there was a significant increase in the number of violations if we compare it with the first seven months of the year. The closer we are to the elections, the greater the violent actions of illegal armed groups once morest the candidates or leaders,” said the Ombudsman, Carlos Camargo.

Furthermore, he pointed out that the groups that commit the greatest violations are the dissidents of the FARC, the Gaitanista Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AGC-Clan del Golfo) and the ELN, to which are added those of organized crime. The departments with the highest number of vulnerable behaviors recorded between August and September in municipalities with extreme risk were Norte de Santander (20), Arauca (15), Nariño (12) and Bolívar (9). They are followed by Cauca (3), Antioquia (3), Guaviare (3), Huila (3), Valle del Cauca (3), Chocó (2) and Putumayo (1).

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