América Editorial, July 22 (EFE).- The presidential elections in Venezuela on July 28 have the potential to redefine the geopolitical landscape in multiple regions of the worldThe network of international relations woven by Caracas is at stake, and its future will depend largely on the outcome of this crucial vote.
The consequences of these elections will be deeply felt, from Havana to Washington, via Brasilia, Brussels, Moscow and Beijing.
United States: Sanctions, migration and regional focus
US foreign policy towards Venezuela has focused on sanctions and diplomatic pressure to promote regime change.
A change in Venezuelan leadership could alter the dynamics of these relations, relaxing sanctions if a shift toward democracy is perceived or intensifying them if the new leadership is seen as a continuation of Chavismo.
An improvement in Venezuela’s political and economic situation could reduce migration to the United Stateswhile an adverse situation would tend to increase it.
In terms of regional policy, the United States will adjust its approach to Latin America by modifying alliances and strategies to maintain regional stability depending on the electoral outcome.
Latin America: The outcome will shape regional alliances
If a change of government were to occur in Venezuela, regional alliances would likely be reconfigured and negotiations on key issues such as migration, trade and security would intensify.
In addition, new leadership in Venezuela could affect the dynamics of regional organizations such as CELAC and the OAS, and impact neighboring economies, especially Colombia, due to possible changes in energy and trade policy.
Argentina, Costa Rica, Guatemala, Paraguay and Uruguay issued a joint statement last Friday expressing their deep concern about the conditions under which the next electoral process will take place in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela.
These five countries denounced “the systematic harassment and persecution of leaders and supporters of the Venezuelan opposition” as well as members of civil society, which they consider a serious obstacle to the conduct of a legitimate electoral process.
Meanwhile, the interdependence between Venezuela and Colombia has grown significantly in recent years, as the former is home to 1.7 million Colombians and the latter to more than 2.7 million Venezuelans.
In addition, Colombian President Gustavo Petro has a close relationship with his Venezuelan counterpart, Nicolás Maduro, and Venezuela’s influence on peacebuilding in Colombia is notable, Ronal Rodríguez, from the Venezuela Observatory at the Universidad del Rosario in Bogotá, told EFE.
Brazil, one of the guarantors of the Barbados Accords, has adopted a cautious stance regarding the elections in Venezuela. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has asked that the elections be held in “full democratic normality” and has advocated for a large presence of international observers.
Meanwhile, Mexico has maintained a stance of non-interference in Venezuelan affairs. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has avoided criticizing Nicolás Maduro and has emphasized that the Venezuelan people should be the ones to elect their authorities.
Chilean President Gabriel Boric has been one of the most vocal critics of Nicolás Maduro since he came to power in March 2022.
Boric has insisted that “the defense of human rights has no ideology” and has denounced the double standards of the left in condemning civil abuses in Venezuela, which has earned him disqualifications from the Chavistas.
Also at stake in these elections is the extensive network of international relations that Caracas has forged since the arrival of Chavismo in Venezuela, from the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA) to Petrocaribe, because the backbone of all of them is political affinity.
European Union: Criticism of Maduro’s government and no observers
The European Union has been critical of the Chavista regime, has imposed sanctions and has promoted dialogue for a peaceful solution to the Venezuelan crisis.
A change of government could open up new opportunities for European cooperation and support in the reconstruction of Venezuela, provided there is a perceived commitment to democratic principles and human rights.
The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, has regretted that Venezuela has revoked the invitation to the European Union to observe the elections on July 28, which in his opinion will prevent the international community from having the guarantee that these elections can be “approved.”
China and Russia, strategic allies of Chavismo
Both countries have been strategic allies of Venezuela, providing economic and political support. Russia, in particular, has been a key supplier of oil and military support, while China has invested significantly in infrastructure and natural resources. A change in the Venezuelan government could affect these arrangements, depending on the political orientation of the new leadership.
Venezuela maintains close relations with several Middle Eastern countries, especially Iran, with which it shares an anti-American stance. The elections could influence these ties, either by strengthening existing alliances or opening the door to new diplomatic dynamics.
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2024-07-23 11:54:58
