An important reason in that case is one money scandal which has characterized Japanese politics in the past year. It concerns the unregulated use of election campaign funds in the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
Former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had to leave in September, and party leader Shigeru Ishiba took over. He immediately announced new elections, with the hope that it would strengthen support around the conservative LDP.
But that’s not how it looks like it’s going.
– The anger in the population has not abated. The election is going to be very even for the LDP, says professor emeritus Tomoaki Iwai at Nihon University in Tokyo.
– Unstable anyway
According to a new opinion poll, the LDP is likely to lose up to 50 seats in the National Assembly. Coalition partner Komeito may also back down.
Thus, the LDP risks losing its majority in the legislative assembly. Even together with Komeito, it is uncertain whether the majority will be saved.
LDP may have to look for new partners. Alternatively, the opposition party CDPJ, which is further to the left of the political landscape, could try to form a new government. In that case, they will need support from a number of other parties who disagree on many issues.
– In fact, there will be political instability regardless of who wins, says Rintaro Nishimura of the consultancy Asia Group Japan.
According to the news agency Reuters, the election in Japan contributes to more uncertainty in “an already turbulent geopolitical landscape”.
Long-range rockets
The election in Japan is held nine days before the Americans will choose whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump will rule the United States.
At the same time, relations with China are tense, and high price increases worry Japanese consumers.
The LDP believes new long-range missiles are necessary to deter China. But coalition partner Komeito, linked to one of Japan’s largest Buddhist movements, is skeptical.
One possibility for the LDP is to seek support from the smaller party DPP. But the DPP wants to cut taxes, a proposal the LDP does not support.
Dominant role
The scandal that hit the LDP involved a fund that was used to channel money to a number of the party’s politicians. The transfers were not registered properly, and the police eventually started an investigation.
Prime Minister Ishiba promised not to actively support politicians involved in the scandal. But according to Japanese media, the local teams of several of them have still received money.
The LDP has been in power in Japan for the vast majority of the post-World War II period. Since the party was founded in the 1950s, there have only been a few periods where it has not been in government.
When Kishida took over as prime minister on October 1, he promised to revitalize Japanese villages and address the “quiet crisis” caused by Japan’s declining population.
Later, the criticism increased, partly because Kishida only appointed two women in his government.
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