Even according to the current APA election trend, the FPÖ can expect to come in first place. However, the latest surveys indicate that the blue party’s lead over the ÖVP is shrinking. The performance of the “small” lists could also be relevant: According to the surveys, their entry seems rather unlikely. This could mean that, in addition to turquoise-blue, another two-party coalition (ÖVP-SPÖ) could also be formed.
In the APA election trend, which takes into account surveys from the past five weeks and weights them according to timeliness, the FPÖ is at 27.2 percent (previous week: 27.5), ahead of the ÖVP with 24.7 percent (24.4) and the SPÖ with 20.6 percent (20.7). The NEOS are at 9.8 percent and are still ahead of the Greens (8.4 percent).
Difficult choice for small lists
Since Monday a week ago, four more surveys have been included in the calculation. All of them put the FPÖ in first place with 26 to 27 percent – but now slightly ahead of the ÖVP, which achieved 25 percent in all of these surveys. In the surveys from the week before, the People’s Party did worse in some cases (between 22 and 26 percent), while the FPÖ did slightly better (27 to 28 percent). The SPÖ is still in third place – but with 20 to 21 percent, some way behind.
According to surveys, the election will be more difficult for the smaller lists. Even the Beer Party, which experts had long said would easily clear the four percent hurdle needed to get into the National Council, has been below this figure for some time now: the party is currently at 3.8 percent in the election trend, with the KPÖ behind it at three percent. In all four surveys since last Monday, BIER was only at three percent, the KPÖ was at three percent in three of the surveys and four percent in one. Up until the beginning of August, the Beer Party’s figures were much better (up to six percent). According to the surveys, the Petrovic list and “None of them” have no chance with figures of around one percent.
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The question of the entry of the “small” parties is relevant because it also influences the distribution of seats, especially for the larger parties. OGM boss Wolfgang Bachmayer told APA at the weekend that the small parties together are likely to achieve at least six to seven percent of the vote. If they all fail to make it into the National Council, however, the seats for the larger parties will become “cheaper”. The result would be that, in addition to the fairly secure joint majority of seats for the FPÖ and ÖVP, a narrow majority of seats could also emerge for a coalition between the ÖVP and SPÖ. “With 45 or 46 percent, a majority of seats could be achieved,” said the OGM boss. This suddenly makes another two-party coalition (between the ÖVP and SPÖ) seem possible.
According to the experts, it is currently not possible to estimate to what extent the flood disaster played a role in the new polls, nor whether this could change by election day, as Bachmayer told APA.
Last week, political scientists and opinion researchers warned people to be cautious when interpreting the survey data. In the EU elections in June, the FPÖ ultimately performed worse than the surveys had expected, while the ÖVP performed better. The Freedom Party did indeed come in first place, but it was surprisingly close. Instead of a clear lead, the FPÖ was only slightly ahead of the ÖVP with 25.4 to 24.5 percent. The surveys of the last 30 days before the election had predicted a good two percentage points more for the Blue Party. On election day, however, the ÖVP was more than two percentage points above its expectations.