Six weeks before the election, the balance of power in the polls is frozen. The FPÖ is still clearly in first place in the APA election trend, which takes into account polls from the past five weeks and weights them according to timeliness.
The ÖVP and SPÖ are still in a neck-and-neck race for second place, and the Neos and Greens for fourth place. No new polls have been published since last week because of the holidays, so there are only marginal changes in the election trend compared to the previous week. But there was little movement in the weeks before that either.
The FPÖ’s poll ratings remained as if walled in throughout the summer. Since mid-June, the Freedom Party has been at around 27 percent (currently 27). The ÖVP and SPÖ are still clearly behind at around four percentage points, although the Chancellor’s party has consistently had the better cards in the duel for second place since the EU elections at the beginning of June. The ÖVP is currently at 23.2 percent, while the SPÖ is around one percentage point behind at 22.1 percent.
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The race for fourth place remains exciting. The Neos have been in the lead for several weeks and have recently increased their lead over the Greens. They are currently at 9.8 percent, the Greens at 8.5 percent.
The Beer Party continues to have a good chance of entering the National Council, having remained relatively unchanged at 5.2 percent since the beginning of July. From the current perspective, the KPÖ would not clear the four percent hurdle for entering the National Council, with 2.9 percent. The other small parties are not yet included in the APA election trend due to a lack of survey data.
