Election Promises: A Comedy of Errors and Hypotheticals
Ah, elections—every five years, they roll around like a particularly bad joke at a stand-up show, full of empty promises and enthusiastic nods. Much like a magician pulling a rabbit out of a hat, only to reveal it was a tax-declined rat that barely tickles the funny bone. The Irish election saga is no different, and if you’re looking for punchlines, look no further than Micheál Martin and his merry band of coalition comedians.
The Grand Coalition Conundrum
Now, let’s rewind to the last show—a performance where Fianna Fáil went to town on Fine Gael’s lack of delivery on housing, health, and the timeless classic, the cost of living. They had 37 stinging mentions in their manifesto, enough to make a roast dinner blush. But oh! Fast forward to the first election count and six weeks later, and what do we see? A “grand coalition” so grand it could win an Oscar for Best Dramatic Irony!
Housing: A Game of Musical Chairs
The housing crisis! Ah yes, the eternal theme of “How Not to Build Homes.” Fine Gael’s grand plans promised anywhere between 35,000 to 40,000 homes a year—like the number of cans of Guinness I drink during a particularly slow rugby match. However, what did we end up with? A paltry 32,695 homes in 2023, which, in a country where everyone’s living in a tent made of dreams, is simply not enough!
Climate Stuff: The (Not So) Green Initiative
Let’s talk climate. The Greens insisted on cutting emissions by 7% each year. An excellent goal—commendable! But you’d have better luck spotting Bigfoot sunbathing on the Cliffs of Moher than witnessing that 7% reduction. Progress was noted, but here’s a tip for all you aspiring eco-warriors: doing almost half of what you promised isn’t quite the green-light win you hoped for!
Education: Class Size Reality Check
Then there’s education. Promises were made about reducing class sizes, which all sounds lovely until you realize we’re still packing kids in like they’re sardines in a tin can. But hey, they’ve at least dropped the pupils-to-teachers ratio from 26:1 to a still staggering 23:1! A spectacular show of gradual improvement, if a bit slow-motion for a race against time.
Childcare: Spending Worth Its Weight in Gold
And speaking of child care—they claim it’s above the low baseline they started with! Yep, when your bar is set lower than my last Tinder date’s expectations, exceeding it doesn’t quite scream success, does it?
Pensions: The Coffee Mug That Never Fails
Now, pensions… ah, the golden years! Commitments to increase the State pension were made, and surprise, surprise—they delivered! It’s almost as if older voters felt a sense of relief that they wouldn’t need to run a bingo night just to make ends meet. Huzzah!
Health: Spending More Than Delivering
Finally, health—a notoriously tricky topic. Promised nurses? They hired about 9,000 more! But let’s not lose our marbles over quantity. Quality, after all, remains the concern here. A bit like ordering a fancy dish at a Michelin-star restaurant only to find it lacks the ingredient of ‘actually being served on time.’
And Now… In Case You Missed It!
Some things remain merely whispers in the wind. Homework elimination? Just a thought bubble floating away. And don’t get me started on that pothole app—if only fixing potholes was as easy as swiping right on your local candidates!
Conclusion: The Punchline That Never Lands
As we prepare for the upcoming election, let’s keep a keen eye. After all, the true comedy fest will prod us with promises anew, handshakes, and the ever-so-sweet nectar of political irony. In the great Irish election saga, remember: it’s all fun and games until someone stands up with a manifesto and a straight face!
During the course of an election, perspectives often shift dramatically, particularly as votes are counted and the reality of electoral promises becomes clearer. This evolution of thought is well exemplified by Micheál Martin, whose party faced significant scrutiny.
In Fianna Fáil’s manifesto for the 2020 general election, there were strikingly 37 mentions of Fine Gael, none of which conveyed a positive sentiment towards their main rival.
When Leo Varadkar introduced the possibility of a “grand coalition” during a televised debate in late January, Mr. Martin reacted strongly, declaring, “Fine Gael needs to leave government; they have been in power for too long and failed to address critical issues like housing, healthcare, and the rising cost of living affecting many citizens.” Yet, just one election count and six weeks later, the political landscape had shifted unexpectedly… as history would show.
The dynamics of coalition negotiations in forming a new government had a direct impact on the policy promises made by the parties involved, including the Greens.
The ongoing challenges of Covid and the ramifications of the war in Ukraine played significant roles in shaping the priorities of the coalition government. As political parties gear up to make ambitious promises once again in the upcoming election, it is crucial to assess how effectively they have adhered to the commitments made during the last campaign.
Housing
Housing remains a pivotal issue for the Government. The Coalition has, as pledged by the two larger parties, increased supports for first-time homebuyers. However, the persistent shortfall in the supply of new homes continues to be a significant concern.
In early 2020, Fine Gael set ambitious targets, promising to deliver between 35,000 and 40,000 homes annually, alongside the construction of 60,000 social housing units over five years. Fianna Fáil pledged to build 50,000 affordable homes and implement measures to facilitate the delivery of 200,000 new homes by 2025.
Overall, housing delivery numbers have failed to meet these projections, with 32,695 homes completed in 2023—only about 3,500 more than the targets set in the Housing for All initiative. However, the figures for both social and affordable homes fell short of expectations, leading to a general consensus that the targets were set too low, exacerbated by record levels of homelessness and increasing unaffordability.
On the rental side, a mix of aids and supports has been rolled out, yet the dire shortage of rental units has kept rental prices climbing, mirroring the trends seen in property purchase prices.
Climate
The influence of the Green Party has been significantly felt in environmental policy. Their manifesto committed them to achieving a 7 percent reduction in emissions annually and aiming for at least a 50 percent reduction by 2030. Although the consistent 7 percent target has yet to be realized, 2023 marked notable progress toward this goal. The introduction of carbon budgets, a critical tool for controlling emissions, was championed by the party.
Progress has been made in retrofitting homes, with 40,000 homes renovated last year, although their target was set at 75,000. They have also made strides in public transport improvement, even though the promise to make it free for students or to introduce a €365 annual pass did not materialize.
Education
All three political parties made commitments to reduce class sizes and increase funding for schools. Fianna Fáil provided the most definitive pledge, aiming to lower pupil-teacher ratios from 26:1 in 2020 down to 20:1 by 2025. Currently, the ratio stands at 23:1.
Fine Gael promised to maintain third-level education fees at current levels, which have since been reduced, and made substantial commitments regarding capital and other funding, which have been enacted successfully.
Childcare
Despite starting from a low base, the current Government has managed to surpass the general commitments made five years ago by the parties concerning childcare, particularly regarding increased spending and subsidies for families.
Pensions
The importance of the elderly voting demographic—who have shown a tendency to vote in high numbers, especially for the traditional major parties—has resulted in similar commitments from them to increase the State pension by roughly €25 being honored.
Tax
Fine Gael vowed to elevate the threshold at which workers begin paying the higher tax rate to €50,000, up from the current €42,000. Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil promised to implement measures that would reduce Universal Social Charge (USC) payments; although the mechanisms have evolved, cuts were achieved. Notably, Fine Gael’s policy on tipping became law, while Fianna Fáil’s intended reduction of Capital Gains Tax to 25 percent did not materialize. Green Party proposals concerning a wealth tax, flight tax, and reductions in tax reliefs for larger pension pots have not occurred, with the recent government decision being to increase the latter instead.
Health
Similar to housing, health remains an area where increased government spending has not necessarily translated into the anticipated outcomes. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil committed to substantially raising budgets and staff numbers—an objective that was realized. In contrast, the Green Party’s manifesto section on health lacked specific quantitative targets.
Nevertheless, health can often stretch governments beyond their own commitments. For example, Fine Gael promised to hire 5,000 additional nurses and has successfully brought in approximately 9,000 more into the workforce. However, despite these improvements, health expenditure as a portion of overall government spending has remained relatively constant.
Other matters
Not all commitments require substantial financial outlays. In 2020, the Greens expressed intent to explore the possible elimination of homework in primary schools. Almost five years later, it appears that the exploration has not progressed to actual implementation.
Additionally, several commitments have been quietly set aside with no current mention—such as Fianna Fáil’s proposed pothole reporting app.
There is still an opportunity for voters to hold their local candidates accountable for these promises.
What specific tax rate changes can taxpayers expect in the upcoming elections?
Tax rates have not been fully realized, leading to frustration among taxpayers hoping for immediate relief.
### Conclusion: Looking Ahead
As we approach the next election, it’s evident that political promises create a mix of expectation and skepticism. With the previous campaign’s commitments still fresh in the minds of voters, it will be interesting to see how parties adapt their messages and whether they learn from past performances. The dance of political promises continues—let’s hope the next round brings us more than just a half-hearted attempt at change!
