Election in the Philippines: Will dictator’s son Ferdinand Marcos be the next president?

Updated on 05/07/2022 at 11:51 am

• The people of the Philippines will elect a new president on Monday.
• The most promising candidate is of all people the son of ex-dictator Ferdinand Marcos, who is in line with outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte and wants to continue his brutal war on drug trafficking.
• Why does someone like him score? The answer also has to do with Facebook.

This text contains a classification of current events, which, in addition to data and facts, also includes the assessments of the author or the expert who has the floor. Here you will find information regarding the different types of journalistic texts.

A dictator’s son as the new president? on the Philippines might that become a reality if the people on Monday elect a successor to Rodrigo Duterte, who following six years in office is constitutionally banned from standing once more. Ferdinand Marcos Junior did not distance himself from his father Ferdinand Marcos Senior. He has never regretted that in the 1970s and 1980s he disempowered parliament under martial law, harassed around 30,000 opposition members in military camps and shamelessly enriched himself.

“It’s hard for me, too, to believe how popular Ferdinand Marcos is,” says Rebecca Zistel, who heads the office of the FDP-affiliated Friedrich Naumann Foundation in the Philippines. According to polls, more than 50 percent of voters want to vote for Marcos. The strongest competitor, Vice President Leni Robredo, only comes in at around 20 percent – a clear picture of the mood, even if the polls, according to Zistel, should be treated with a certain amount of caution, since the questions are sometimes tendentious.

With trolls and fake accounts: dictator family revamps image

According to the expert, the fact that the horrors of the past will hardly play a role in the 2022 election campaign has a lot to do with it Facebook to do. “No other people in the world spend as much time on social media as Filipinos, especially on Facebook,” explains Zistel. This is probably also due to the fact that the company has made what it considers a very clever deal with the country’s mobile phone providers: surfing on Facebook does not depend on the data volume of the – often poor – users. For many, the network is therefore the primary, if not the only, source of news.

The Marcos clan took advantage of this, says Zistel: “He has been spreading disinformation for years, according to the motto that Marcos Sr.’s dictatorship was a ‘golden era’. And he paints the picture of a happy extended family, what with draws a lot of people incredibly strongly, because family and community are more important to many in the Philippines.”

“Never once more martial law. No to the tandem Marcos Duterte”: Unlike many of her contemporaries, this young woman opposes the most promising presidential candidate.

© picture alliance / ZUMAPRESS.com/Basilio Sepe

The historical distortion with trolls and fake accounts is probably also so popular because the Philippines is a young country. The average age is 25 years. Many voters did not experience the dictatorship themselves, and there is hardly any critical debate at school. Marcos can hope for the votes of seven out of ten voters between 18 and 24, like “Rappler”, one of the few independent media citing a survey reported.

Almost one in four Filipinos is considered poor

According to the World Bank, almost a quarter of the approximately 110 million Filipinos live on less than 1.65 euros a day. The corona crisis has hit the country massively. The gross domestic product has collapsed, the unemployment rate has meanwhile skyrocketed to over 17 percent. And last but not least, the pandemic has revealed that the healthcare system, with five hospital beds per 100,000 inhabitants (Germany: 791), is worse than any other country in the region.

So there are enough problems, but Marcos doesn’t even try to score points with content. The 64-year-old relies on his popularity – and that of the incumbent Rodrigo Duterte.

Duterte has made a name for himself internationally, above all with vulgar statements (he called Pope Francis a “son of a bitch”) and his so-called war on drugs. With the ostensible aim of providing security, his kill squads have wiped out at least 5,000 lives over the past six years. Those are the official numbers. Non-governmental organizations speak of around 20,000 dead.

Irrespective of this, Duterte is popular with the population and Marcos’ virtually only campaign promise is to continue his politics. During the election campaign, Marcos often appeared with Duterte’s daughter Sara, who is running for vice president and is ahead in polls.

Election in the Philippines: Only one candidate with a clear agenda

The top five contenders for the presidency include Marcos Isko Moreno, the mayor of Manila, and Panfilo Lacson, a senator and ex-cop accused of numerous human rights violations. The well-known former professional boxer Manny Pacquiao also competes, who comes from the Duterte camp, but has since fallen out with it. And of course Leni Robredo, the liberal Vice-President. “Leni Robredo is not only the only woman among the presidential candidates, she is also the only one with a clear agenda,” says Zistel. Robredo campaigns for better health care, the fight once morest climate change and an infrastructure that withstands the frequent natural disasters.

Vice President Leni Robredo is hailed by supporters in Pasay City in April.

© picture alliance / ZUMAPRESS.com/Basilio Sepe

Rebecca Zistel does not want to rule out that Robredo will cause a surprise on election day. However, it seems more likely that power will fall back into the hands of the Marcos family 36 years following the end of the dictatorship. All in all, forecasts are difficult, says Zistel, not least because vote-buying is officially forbidden, but it’s still common practice. “People are bribed with money or a sack of rice.”

There have also been repeated reports of double-registered voters and the multiple issue of ballot papers to Filipinos living abroad. And: Theoretically, Ferdinand Marcos Junior might even be excluded from the election. Marcos is on trial for allegedly evading inheritance taxes. The election commission is examining justified objections to his candidacy.

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Sources used

• Conversation with Rebecca Zistel, head of the Philippine office of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation
• rappler.com: “Marcos Jr. is top pick of Generation Z, says Puls Asia survey” vom 14. März 2022
• Amnesty International 25 March 2022: “Speak little, say much”
• rappler.com: “Lawmaker and lawbreaker? Past haunts Lacson in GMA Interview” vom 22. Januar 2022.