2023-06-10 09:42:00
“Wissanu Attavanich” opens the picture, indicates the world warns “El Niño”, a clear signal, starting in October, dragging on at least March ’24, causing severe consequences in Thailand, drought, hotter than usual, pointing to the most severe southern region
Assoc. Prof. Dr.Wissanu Attawanich Lecturer at the Faculty of Economics Kasetsart University Economics expert and research expert on climate change and agriculture. Came out to post a message via private Facebook “Witsanu Attavanich” stating that the El Niño warning has been raised to El Niño Advisory!! The probability of an El Niño has exceeded 90%, stretching to at least Mar. 24. The probability of a severe El Niño has increased from the forecast last month by 2 indexes. (ONI index and IOD) indicate that El Niño is likely to occur. Be prepared for weather conditions that are likely to be hotter and drier than usual, which differ from region to region. The signal will begin to be clear from Oct. ’23 onwards.
Most recently (June 8, 2023), the International Research Institute for Climate Society (IRI), Columbia University and the Climate Prediction Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the United States, have predicted that the probability of El Niño Another increase compared to the forecast results during May ’23, reaching 90%, dragging until at least Mar. ’24
(Figure 2, left, red bar) and CPC research (NOAA) estimates that moderate El Niño strength upward (>1.0 °C) has a probability of occurring 72-84% since the period Aug. 23-Mar. 24 (Figure 2, purple bar right) and the strength of a severe El Niño (>1.5 °C) has the highest probability of 56% during Nov. 23. – Jan. ’24 (2nd right picture with dark red bars)
Figure 3 indicates two indices (ONI index and IOD) from the global model. The forecast agrees that El Niño will happen quite certain and will accelerate from now on to a severe level in August 2023 (1.7 °C) and increase to 2.0 °C in Oct. 23 Image 4 indicates that from past statistics collection United Kingdom Meteorological Office (Met Office)
It was found that the El Niño phenomenon tends to cause Thailand to be drier than normal during the period. March-July and hotter than usual during October-June, while the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) found that the El Niño phenomenon tends to cause Southern Thailand is hotter and drier than usual from Dec. to Feb., while other regions will be warmer than usual from Dec. to Feb.
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