2023-05-19 01:24:50
During the years it strikes, the band of warm ocean water stretching from South America to Asia better known as El Nino causes major weather changes that result in devastating floods, deadly droughts for harvests, declining fish populations and an increase in tropical diseases.
As El Nino is to affect the planet once more this year, researchers from Dartmouth University write, in the specialist publication Sciencethat the financial price of this phenomenon can be felt for several years following the climate impact itself, and can reach trillions in lost income throughout the world.
This study, write its authors, is one of the first to assess the long-term costs of El Nino, in addition to projecting losses that greatly exceed those estimated in previous work.
El Nino is the warm phase of a natural cycle of high and low temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean that includes an opposite, colder phase, La Nina.
Researchers spent two years examining global economic activity in the decades following the El Nino events of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998, and found a ‘persistent signature’ of slowing economic activity more than five years following the events. .
Thus, the world economy lost 4.1 trillion and 5.7 trillion, respectively, in the five years following each of the events, adverse effects that were largely absorbed by the poorest countries of the world, in the tropics.
Researchers project that global economic losses for the 21st century will reach 84 trillion, as the climate crisis might amplify the frequency and strength of El Nino – even if current climate pledges by various nations are met.
For 2023 alone, El Nino might cost the global economy up to $3 trillion by the end of 2029, the study authors estimate.
Lead researcher Christopher Callahan says the study helps tackle an ongoing debate regarding how quickly societies recover from major weather events like El Nino.
“We can say with certainty that societies and different economies around the world cannot just cash in and move on,” Callahan said, adding that the data suggests that the negative effects of El Nino might last for periods of up to 14 years, if not more.
“In the tropics and other places that experience the effects of El Nino, you get a persistent signature during which economic growth is delayed for at least five years,” the researcher added.
“The total price of these events has not yet been fully quantified – you still have to add in all of the slowed growth in the followingmath, not just when the event occurs. »
The financial impact of the climate
For his part, Justin Mankin, one of the main authors of the work, maintains that the latter’s conclusions highlight an essential, but underestimated, factor that plays on the economic impact of climate change.
If the variations in climatic conditions, year following year, are largely dissociated from the rise in temperatures, they can amplify or diminish its effects. And El Nino is the most important global source of these variations, with its global impact and its repercussions through many national economies.
According to Mr. Mankin, this phenomenon and its financial costs must therefore be taken into account when it comes to combating the climate crisis.
“Our well-being is affected by the global economy, and that economy is linked to the climate,” Mankin said.
“When you ask yourself how much the climate crisis costs, you can start by asking yourself how much climate variations cost. We demonstrate that such variations, like those related to El Nino, are incredibly costly and slow growth for years, leading us to cost estimates that are many times larger than before. »
MM. Callahan and Mankin found that following the 1982-83 and 1997-98 occurrences, U.S. GDP was regarding 3% less than expected in both 1988 and 2003. But in coastal tropical nations like Peru and Indonesia, this decline was more like 10%.
“The global pattern of El Nino’s effects on climate and the prosperity of various countries reflects the uneven distribution of wealth and climate risk – not to mention responsibility for the climate crisis – across the planet,” Mr. Mankin.
“El Nino amplifies the vast inequalities linked to the climate crisis, which disproportionately affects the least resilient and least prepared populations. »
This researcher adds that “the duration and magnitude of the financial repercussions discovered suggest that we are poorly adapted to the climate in which we currently live. Our evaluation increases the price of inaction. We must both mitigate the climate crisis and invest more in El Nino prediction and adaptation, as these events will only magnify the future costs of global warming. »
And for 2023, El Nino is expected to come at a time when ocean temperatures are at record highs, Callahan said. The previous large-scale event occurred in 2016 and made that year the hottest on record. Worse still, the climate crisis has only gotten worse since then. Moreover, the planet is coming out of a long phase of El Nina, and the two phenomena can amplify each other.
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