2023-05-04 02:39:02
He El Nino weather phenomenon It has a high probability of occurring this year and could raise temperatures to break heat records, the UN warned on Wednesday.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimates that there is a 60% chance that El Niño will develop between now and the end of Julyand an 80% chance between now and the end of September.
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The boy It is a natural climatic phenomenon generally associated with a rising temperatures, increasing drought in some parts of the world and heavy rains in others.
It was last produced in 2018-2019 and led to a particularly long episode of The girlwhich causes the inverse effects and in particular a decrease in temperatures.
Despite this moderating effect, thehe past eight years have been the hottest ever recorded.
Without La Niña, the level of climate warming would have been worse. It has been “like a temporary brake on the rise in global temperature,” said Petteri Taalas, secretary general of the OMMquoted in a statement.
Nevertheless, “the development of El Niño will most likely lead to a new peak in global warming and it will increase the chances of breaking temperature records,” he warned.
“More extremes”
For now, it is not possible to predict the intensity or duration of the El Niño that is forming. The last one that occurred was considered low, but the previous one, between 2014 and 2016, was intense and had disastrous consequences.
The OMM noted that 2016 was “the warmest year on record due to the ‘double whammy’ of The boy very strong and warming caused by greenhouse gases related to human activity.
The impact of El Niño on temperatures is normally noticed the year after the weather event. Therefore, the WMO fears that its effect will probably be seen in 2024.
“The world must prepare for the development of El Niño”alerted the head of the organization.
This “could lead to a respite in the drought in the Horn of Africa and other La Niña-related impacts, but could also unleash more extreme weather and climate events,” he said.
Faced with this situation, Taalas reiterated the need to install early warning systems –one of the priorities of the OMM— to protect the most threatened populations.
No two El Niños are identical and its effects depend in part on the period of the year in which they occur, says the WMO.
The phenomenon occurs every two to seven years on average and normally lasts between nine and twelve months.
It is also associated with warming ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
El Niño causes increased rainfall in certain southern parts of South America, the United States, the Horn of Africa, and Central Asia.
In Australia, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia, it can cause severe drought.
During the boreal summer – the dry season in the northern hemisphere and cold in the southern hemisphere – the heating of surface waters caused by El Niño can also lead to hurricanes in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, according to the WMO.
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