2024-08-10 03:01:00
Chicago corn and soybean prices continue to consolidate their downward trend, surprising operators as the market does not appear to have found a bottom yet. This is an issue that Argentinian producers should be highly concerned about.
Today everything is bearish (Bearish) as economic issues affecting the world’s major economies favor a bearish backdrop.
However, there is also a lot of confusion because no single factor influences market trends. Arguably, we are dealing with a variety of factors, but in the case of corn, the downward trend in Chicago is due to supply and demand analysis factors for the U.S. grain.
However, U.S. corn prices are up $21 per ton (USD/ton) in 2025 compared to the first futures position in September 2024.
In its latest report, according to the global supply and demand analysis released by the United States Department of Agriculture (Usda), the first data considered is that US corn production increased by 610 trillion tons in 2024/25 from 377.46 million tons. The output in 2023/24 is 389.69 million tons.
This is the main data to consider, although the US corn area decreased by 1 million hectares, the yield from one season to the next was almost the same.
Total domestic consumption in the United States increases from 320.82 (2024) to 322 million tons (2025) due to increased domestic demand for corn for animal feed. The exportable balance is expected to be 56.52 million tons, the same as the previous quarter.
Corn prices by country top 5
Due to higher production, final stocks increased by 5.6 million tons, from 47.67 million tons (2024) to 53.26 million tons (2025). For the exporting countries that make up the selected group top 5. Among the five exporting countries in the world, Brazil performed outstandingly. Its output increased by 5 million tons, from 1.22 million tons to 127 million tons, but its export volume fell by 500,000 tons to 49 million tons.
Argentinian production fell from 520,000 tons to 51 million tons, while the export balance in 2025 is expected to be 36 million tons, compared with 37 million tons in the previous season.
Ukraine, another major corn exporter, expects its output to decrease by 3.3 million tons, from 310,000 tons to 27.7 million tons.
The first consequence was that exports dropped from 280,000 to 24.5 million. Among the five major corn exporting countries, exports from Brazil, Ukraine and Argentina are expected to decrease. In the US, the volume is the same.
However, only one country, Argentina, can still reverse the expected sharp decline in corn area in 2024/25 (possibly by 1 million hectares) as the planting season is extended to mid-August.
Another fact that cannot be ignored is that the price of corn in the Chicago market increased by $21/ton between September 2024 ($151.5) and July 2025 ($172.5). At the same time, the price of corn in Argentina fell by US$5/ton between September 2024 (US$176/ton) and April 2025 (US$171/ton).
If we compare Matba-Rofex soybean prices, new harvest soybeans in May 2025 are quoted at $283/ton, which is $28/ton lower than today’s September 2024 prices.
Therefore, when evaluating which summer crop to plant, Argentinian producers must choose between new soybeans at $283/ton in April 2025 and new corn at $171/ton.
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