INDEC announces October inflation forecast to be lowest in three years

2024-11-12 04:34:00

This will be informed by the National Institute of Census and Statistics (Indec) Tuesday, November 12e Private consultants rank October consumer price index (CPI) data in the following order in their forecasts 3% Even break the ceiling, This is what I saw 3 years ago (i.e. May-June 2021).

Consumer Price Index data shows downward trend Already reached 3.5% in September The cumulative growth for the whole year was 101.6%, an annual increase of 209%.

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Notably, last week’s Market Expectations Survey was released, with forecasts from major advisory firms following closely behind, with BCRA’s average outcome forecast being inflation of It was 3% in October and 2.9% in November..

Analysts observe that regarding inflation dynamics in the coming months A slight rebound in December (3.2%), and then the descent path: 3% in January, 2.8% in February, 2.8% in March, and 2.6% in April. In this way, the number is close to crawling pinned BCRA provides 2% per month.

Meanwhile, a panel of REM participants presented their views on The core consumer price index (CPI) in October and November was 2.9% and 2.8% respectively.. After a slight gain (3%) in December, it will follow a downward path: 2.9% in January, 2.6% in February, 2.6% in March, and 2.5% in April.

National inflation progress: CABA CPI in October was 3.2%

For its part, inflation data from the city of Buenos Aires was released last week, showing that it was 3.2% in October. Generally speaking, the Buenos Aires CPI is always higher than the national CPI, partly because services account for a larger share of its weighting.

Economist Aldo Abraham explains it this way E channel: “When prices rise under regulation, CABA’s CPI tends to be higher than the national CPI””, said Abram, and then he finished: “Our October CPI survey showed 2.7%.”

“The fact that the indicators are very close leads us to believe that the lower bound of 3% in October has been breached,” the economist said. “In CABA, food price increases are very small, well below 3.2%”he added.

Likewise, Abraham expects “our growth rate to be below 3% in October.” “It was observed that in October, with the reduction in state tax revenue, wholesale prices were affected”he added.

The Buenos Aires Institute of Statistics and Census revealed that October’s price increase represented a decrease of 0.8 percentage points compared with September’s data (4%). Therefore, CABA CPI Cumulative growth of 122.1% in the first ten months In 2024, the increase will reach 200.9% in comparison Year-to-year.

Monthly changes in Buenos Aires prices in October were driven by Clothing, catering, health and education.

Gabriel Rubinstein’s unexpected praise for Milei’s path to economic management

Gabriel RubinsteinThe former economic policy secretary to Minister Sergio Massa during the Alberto Fernández administration said on his X account in recent days that President Javier Milley and Economy Minister Luis Caputo “are doing a great job” , which is very likely to be a huge success in the coming months and quarters.

Ex-official explicitly mentions inflation and noted that current economic management will result in very low inflation, Towards 1% per month.

Aldo Abram on inflation: “We’ll be below 3% in October”

The peso and commercial foreign debt in his personal account are on the verge of exploding” and the current economic management will result in “very low inflation, close to 1% per month, exchange differentials below 20%, regaining external markets and economic growth every year 5%.

However, the economist also believes that the president and ministers have “purchased political, economic and financial risks”, which may force “the government that may succeed him at the time” to make relevant “economic adjustments”.

Finally, Rubinstein admits, If the government continues to achieve these achievements, the government may achieve political victory not only in 2025 but also in 2027. However, he suggests that he is committed to “what”political risk (reversibility), Economic (the dollar is definitely too low) and financial (a mix of low dollar and insufficient BCRA reserves)”.

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**Interview with Aldo Abraham, Economist: Current Inflation Trends in Argentina**

**Interviewer**: Thank you for joining ​us today, Aldo. We’ve seen significant fluctuations in the Consumer ‍Price Index (CPI) recently. Could you share‍ your insights on the October CPI and what it signals about the broader economic landscape?

**Aldo Abraham**: Certainly! The CPI for October was⁢ reported at⁢ 3.2% for the Buenos Aires region, which is generally above the national average due to the higher share⁣ of services there. This figure actually reflects a notable decrease from September’s 4%. It appears we might‍ be moving towards stabilizing inflation rates, albeit slowly.

**Interviewer**: The national cumulative growth for the year stands at a staggering 101.6%.⁢ Can ⁣you ⁢explain how we’ve reached this point and what it means for consumers?

**Aldo Abraham**: Yes,‍ the cumulative growth​ is indeed alarming, and a yearly increase of 209% raises serious concerns for consumer purchasing power. ⁤Such⁤ elevated‍ inflation‌ rates result from a myriad of factors: regulatory price increases, fluctuating exchange rates, and ⁣external economic pressures. For ⁣consumers, this means constantly rising prices on ‌essential goods and a continual ‌erosion of ‍real⁣ income.

**Interviewer**: There‌ are predictions that inflation will reduce ⁢to around 2.6% by April 2025. What gives you confidence in this trend, and are there any caveats?

**Aldo Abraham**:​ The insights‌ from the Market Expectations Survey suggest that inflation⁤ may gradually decline⁤ to 2.6% by next April. ‍This optimism is based on a potential easing of supply-side issues and stabilizing exchange rates. However, it’s crucial to remain cautious—such forecasts depend heavily on the government’s fiscal policies and any external shocks we might face, such‌ as global ​inflation trends or ‍geopolitical instability.

**Interviewer**: You’ve mentioned that October saw ⁢a​ minimal increase in food prices. ⁣How does this fit ⁣into the overall inflation narrative?

**Aldo Abraham**: That’s⁤ an important point.‍ While ‍services and other sectors heavily contributed to rising inflation rates, food prices in Buenos Aires have increased‍ at a​ slower rate, below the ​3.2% mark.‌ This is somewhat comforting, although ​there​ are still⁤ significant costs to consider, particularly in clothing, catering, ⁤healthcare, and education, which have been ​driving monthly changes.

**Interviewer**: Lastly, what ​does Gabriel⁢ Rubinstein’s ⁢recent praise for Javier Milei’s economic management imply for Argentina’s‍ future?

**Aldo Abraham**: Rubinstein’s support of Milei ⁣reflects a broader acknowledgment of the need for significant ⁣policy reforms​ to stabilize the economy and combat inflation. If Milei’s administration can effectively implement structural reforms and regain control over inflationary pressures, it may lead⁤ to a more positive economic outlook in the coming years.

**Interviewer**: Thank you, Aldo, for your valuable insights on inflation in Argentina. We appreciate ‌your time!

**Aldo Abraham**: Thank you for having me!