The noose is tightening, and the chances of spending the winter without cuts are getting slimmer. Indeed, while EDF has already significantly lowered its nuclear production forecasts for this winter, with only 280 to 300 terawatt hours (TWh) generated this year (compared to around 400 in “normal” times), the incumbent supplier has made it known that Thursday that five reactors will see their shutdown extended for several weeks.
What alarm a little more the market, which anticipates a lack of electricity in France in the coming months. Result: the megawatt hour (MWh) is now trading at more than 1,500 euros on the EEX stock exchange for the 1st quarter of 2023, once morest around 50 euros before the crisis.
And for good reason, several power plants are facing a corrosion defect, the origin and extent of which remain unknown, and which has already forced EDF to shut down 12 nuclear reactors. In concrete terms, four reactors whose closure will be extended will be extended for this reason: Cattenom 1, 2 and 3, as well as Penly 1, whose grid reconnections are respectively scheduled for November 1, December 1, November 14 and November 23. January. This will thus represent 3 gigawatts less for the network in October, 2 GW in November and 700 megawatts in December, out of the approximately 61 GW of capacity in the French fleet.
“The reason is simple: we had drawn up a control and repair program for the reactors affected by the corrosion defect submitted to the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN), which the latter had validated in broad outline. But the analyzes of the results of the latest examinations on these four reactors allow us to specify the schedule for the repair program,” explains the electrician.
As for the fifth reactor whose shutdown is maintained, it is Bugey 2, not affected by a corrosion defect but which will have to undergo ” maintenance operations ».
Production targets are maintained
However, these extensions will have no impact on nuclear production forecasts “, even if this one would be located” rather on the low end “, or around 280 TWh, explains to The Tribune a spokesperson. ” We will meet the objectives “, he insists. In fact, to cope with the increase in consumption, EDF still plans to put around 40 GW back into service by the end of December, while 32 out of 56 nuclear reactors are currently shut down.
However, the situation is worrying. Because the country will have very few margins, and might see the situation escape it in the event of strong demand, especially if the winter turns out to be colder than expected. Moreover, this problem of unavailability of nuclear power plants will not be resolved tomorrow: EDF will have to inspect all of its fleet by 2025 by ultrasound to look for any traces of the corrosion defect, prioritizing the most sensitive reactors of 1,450 MW (the most powerful) and some of 1,300 MW.
Finally, the historic unavailability of its reactors might cost EDF itself dearly, at a time when the public energy company is winning more and more customers, frightened by the possible impact of the energy crisis on their bills. and wanting to be protected by the tariff shield. In fact, to assume these newcomers, the group will have to buy many electrons on the futures markets, driven upwards by its own setbacks. For now, EDF estimates the impact of stress corrosion on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) at around 24 billion euros this year, said EDF CEO Jean -Bernard Levy.
