The reason for this is the lack of gas in Austria. The economist Jan Kluge from “Agenda Austria” has calculated in three scenarios how a gas shortage might affect the economy.
“Concrete economic threats” to be expected
In the optimistic scenario, the expert expects that “two-thirds” of Russian gas can be replaced in Austria. In addition, Austrian households would be able to save “a fifth” of gas in the best case. But even then, “a recession is likely next year,” at around “2.6 percent.”
In addition, “uncertainty for people” would increase, as would inflation and gas prices. There would be “concrete economic threats” and “more than 40,000 jobs” would be “at risk”.
“Over 70,000 jobs” at risk
According to Kluge, the middle scenario is the “most likely”: Austria would then be able to offset 50 percent of Russian gas, and households would save “ten percent”. This can be done with classic energy saving tips such as “one or two degrees less room temperature”.
Nevertheless, “over 70,000 jobs” would be in danger, and the recession would deepen to “four percent”. Above all, gas-intensive industries are at risk in terms of jobs, but the trend “then continues throughout the economy”.
If certain companies don’t manage to switch to oil and coal, as demanded by the government, “then many companies will be idle”. In the pessimistic scenario, “non-systemically important companies would be taken off the grid”. At least until an alternative can be found.
Germany wants to avoid an emergency, Austria is preparing for it
According to Kluge, the situation in Germany is “a little bit better”. “But he does have the impression that communication is clearer in Germany.” The alert level was declared a few weeks ago. You have “thereby instruments to take measures that can prevent an emergency”. Germany is working more towards avoiding an emergency, while Austria is preparing for an emergency itself.
Further relief for households necessary
With a view to the winter, the government must “tighten up the relief measures”: “It should be clear that nobody should be allowed to freeze in Austria,” Kluge continued.
However, the expert considers a reduction in VAT or a price cap to be “uncertain”. Rather, one must focus on “private households and people with financial problems” so that in an emergency, people do not have to decide “do I want to heat the heating today or do I want to eat today”.
