2023-06-02 12:29:41
If the year has started well, the economic outlook is darkening for the second part of the year, warns Economiesuisse on Friday, which maintains its growth forecast for Swiss gross domestic product (GDP) unchanged at 0.6% for 2023.
The rebound hoped for in 2024 is also likely to be delayed, she adds in her press release. Inflation continues to weigh down, and even if the rate of 2.7% remains modest in comparison with other countries, it is not decreasing either. Because if the prices of energy and foodstuffs have begun to fall, the other prices remain on the rise.
The central banks reacted much too late, and the rises in interest rates did not make it possible to reverse the trend, estimates Economiesuisse. Moreover, these measures are not free. Thus, a recessionary phase is looming in the United States, while Germany is already in recession.
This situation weighs on Swiss exports, when supplies of semi-finished products remain difficult. The machinery, electrical equipment and metals sector is under pressure, as is chemicals, while textile exports are stagnating. The pharmaceutical industry and medical technologies, on the other hand, are experiencing sustainable growth, while watchmaking is booming.
Growth prospects vary greatly from one branch to another, but also within the same branch, underlines the umbrella. Even in sectors in difficulty, there are companies that are doing well, even very well.
Persistent labor shortages
Finally, the serious shortage of skilled labor is another problem for some companies whose prospects are good, but who are struggling to find the employees they need.
For 2024, Economiesuisse forecasts GDP growth of 0.9%, in a context of a slight increase in unemployment. While the appreciation of the franc is curbing inflation, it is not completely preventing it, so that it should remain above 2% next year.
The organization expects the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to raise its rates once more by the end of the year. Short-term rates should therefore drop to 2%.
Finally, among the risks that threaten the economy, in the eyes of entrepreneurs, it is geopolitical tensions that would cause the greatest difficulties for commercial activity, even more than inflation or the decline in demand.
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