Economic situation: the HCP forecasts 3.4% growth in the first quarter

Economic growth is expected to accelerate in the first quarter of 2023 to reach 3.4%. This is what emerges from the forecasts of the High Commission for Planning. It should be driven by a recovery of 6.7% in the agricultural value added once morest a backdrop of a return of favorable climatic conditions and an improvement in non-agricultural activities of 3%.

The Moroccan economy should recover in 2023, according to forecasts from the High Commission for Planning. To reach this level, sacrifices are imperative. The purchasing power of households, in rural areas, should be particularly sustained at 4.5% in the first quarter, instead of +1.1% during the same period of 2022.

For the most part, domestic demand should see its contribution to overall economic growth increase, to reach +3.2 points in Q1 2023, instead of +0.8 points during the same period of the previous year. But there is an effort to be made to do this. And this requires first of all the recovery of agricultural activities. That is to say benefit from regular rainfall favorable to the expectations of the agricultural sector. Given the disappointing agricultural campaign of the past season, the deficit was enormous.

With 69% of rainfall in October and November, the agricultural sector has been revived but the benefits remain insignificant compared to previous years. With regard to services (non-market sectors and trade and tourism branches), they contribute to the strengthening of the added value of the tertiary sector, promoting an increase in its added value of 4.6% in the first quarter of 2023. As for the secondary sector, it continues to suffer from the effects of foreign demand addressed to export industries and the continued decline in mining and construction activities.

Overall, value added excluding agriculture is expected to increase by 3%, year on year, in Q1 2023. Given a 6.7% increase in agricultural value added, economic activity is expected to grow by 3. 4%, in the first quarter of 2023, in annual variation, instead of 0.3% during the same period of the year 2022.

In addition, the global growth outlook for the first quarter of 2023 remains subject to many uncertainties that might affect economic activity upwards or downwards, including, in particular, geopolitical developments, particularly in Ukraine, the health situation in China, the effectiveness and continuation of budgetary support, the impact of monetary tightening on consumption and investment as well as the volatility of commodity markets.

The lack of dynamism in domestic demand in the main advanced economies and the decline in new export orders in the manufacturing sector might constrain world trade, which is expected to slow in the first quarter of 2023. In this context, world demand addressed to Morocco moderate, with a forecast increase of 3%, in annual variation, instead of +4.1% during the same period a year earlier. The contribution of exports to national growth should slow to +2.4 points, instead of +6.9 points, a quarter earlier.

Abdou Mbaye / ECO Inspirations