2024-01-21 13:43:07
Published on January 21, 2024 at 2:43 p.m.
For 2024, the economic forecasts are far from flamboyant. Indeed, economists agree to forecast modest GDP growth: +1.2% in the United States, +0.6% in the euro zone, +1.1% in Switzerland and +4.5% in China. Furthermore, underlying inflation is still high, at +3.9% in the United States and +3.4% in the euro zone. In addition, budget deficits are worrying investors, particularly in the United States where a deficit of 5.9% is expected for 2024. This gloomy picture is further clouded by continuing geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas conflict, and recent unrest in the Red Sea disrupting navigation.
However, another crucial factor influences the markets above all: central banks. In fact, following tightening monetary conditions at the end of 2022 and in 2023, the American Federal Reserve (Fed) increased its interest rates from 0 to 5.4% in sixteen months. During this period, the performance of bonds and stocks has been disappointing and so the question becomes what the Fed’s policy will be in 2024.
Le Temps publishes columns, written by members of the editorial staff or external people, as well as opinions and columns, proposed to personalities or requested by them. These texts reflect the point of view of their authors. They in no way represent the position of the media.
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