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General view of the Casa Rosada presidential palace in Buenos Aires. Argentina
By Hernán Nessi
BUENOS AIRES, Jan 24 (Archyde.com) – The Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE) of Argentina would have advanced 7.3% year-on-year in November, following recording a fall of 3.4% in the same period of 2020, according to the median of a Archyde.com poll.
Estimates among 13 local and foreign analysts showed an average advance of 7.4% for the EMAE for the eleventh month of 2021.
“The general level of activity registered an annual growth of 7.3% in November, accumulating an advance of 9.5% for the eleven months of the year,” said the consulting firm Orlando Ferreres y Asociados.
“Among the sectors, the most outstanding (…) was Mining and Quarrying, thanks to the good production data coming from Vaca Muerta. The other sectors that performed above the general level were Commerce, Construction and manufacturing industry,” he added.
The disparate projections of the analysts ranged between a minimum and maximum growth of 3.6% and 10.5%, respectively, for the EMAE of the eleventh month of 2021.
“With a month left to end the year, we see that 2021 managed to recover the drop caused by the pandemic, and is above the level it presented following the mid-2018 recession, so the year will end up exceeding initial projections. Ferreras said.
“2021 would close with a growth of 10%, largely due to the statistical drag left by 2020 and also, the extra dollars that agriculture contributed in a context of high international prices and a delay in the real exchange rate, which encouraged the liquidation of foreign exchange,” said Lucio Garay Méndez, an economist at the consulting firm Eco Go.
“For this 2022 we estimate that the economy, with a large accumulation of macroeconomic inconsistencies and a much lower supply of dollars than last year, will fall by 0.7%,” he added.
The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC, according to its publication schedule, will release the official EMAE data for November on Tuesday followingnoon.
(Reporting by Hernán Nessi; Editing by Walter Bianchi)