Dr. Kobsak Pootrakool Executive Vice President and company secretary Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited revealed that the situation of COVID-19 begin to loosen but the world economy And the Thai economy still faces many risks. It is a multi-crisis crisis that each country must prepare to deal with, including the crisis of international conflicts. The global energy and food price crisis Turbulence in the money and capital markets around the world. Meanwhile, the Fed’s accelerating interest rate hikes to combat inflation have forced many central banks to raise interest rates faster, posing the risk of a recession in the United States. and many other countries Including the risk of crisis in emerging markets (Emerging Market) and the problem of the Chinese economy showing signs of slowdown. The global economic crisis that has occurred will clearly affect the Thai economy in the next 1 to 2 years, especially the export sector that will slow down from the previous 20 percent expansion. Year 2021
The Thai economy is currently in good shape. from the recovery of the tourism sector It is expected that the number of tourists during the rest of this year to the beginning of 2023 will increase. There will be regarding 1 million foreign tourists coming to Thailand per month. In total, regarding 10 million foreign tourists will come to Thailand this year, which will support the overall economic recovery. Because it accounts for regarding 10 percent of gross domestic product or GDP.
When tourism recovers and has a positive effect on the overall economy, it will be a factor supporting the policy rate hike of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), Bank of Thailand (BOT), which is expected within this year. The gradual interest rate hike by 0.25 percent 3 times, total is expected to raise the policy interest rate by 0.75 percent by the end of this year. As a result, Thailand’s policy interest rate will increase from 0.5 percent to 1.25 percent by raising the policy interest rate to help solve inflation problems. And help slow the decline in international reserves that fell from the level of $260 billion to the level of USD 215 billion. or a decrease of approximately 45, 000 million baht
Global crude oil prices are likely to drop from a high of $130 to $140 a barrel to a range of $90 to $100 a barrel. Because some countries have now imported crude oil from Russia. In addition, there were concerns regarding the economic recession and the slowdown of the Chinese economy that caused the price of oil to fall. The increase was due to lower speculative factors. The lower oil price has a positive effect on lower inflation levels. And it will make it easier for the Fed and central banks to fight inflation for the rest of the year.
During the period when the crisis overlapped, the crisis takes place in this cycle of approximately 2 years, and the period of facing the crisis and fighting the economic crisis is divided into 4 periods: the first period is the period when the stock market and assets There is a risk of serious adjustments. The second period is the Fed’s interest rate hikes to fight inflation. The third period was during the recession. and crises in many emerging economies And the fourth period is the last period that is going through the economic crisis is the time when the Fed. and central banks of various countries issued measures to stimulate the economy in a new round
The government is able to support investment in many areas to create new opportunities for the country such as the automobile industry – electric motorcycles. renewable energy industry modern logistics system Agriculture and food sectors of the future Fertilizer industry to replace imports, etc.
Introduce the public or general investors to follow the news and assess the situation in each period of the crisis. If it can be assessed correctly, it can save some cash to wait for a new investment round following the crises begin. Investing in the post-crisis period is considered a good time investment.
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