downward trend continues

2023-07-13 19:00:44

The June inflation was 6% as published this Thursday by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (Indec). As expected, the downward trend that had already been observed the previous month is maintained, although specialists clarify that the reasons behind it do not always mean improvements in the economic situation. This was a value expected by the Government, especially by the minister and candidate for president Sergio Massa, because it is the last one he receives before the PASO elections on August 13.

According to the report, accumulated inflation in the last twelve months was 115.6 percent.

With this data, the first semester of the year ended with a price rise so far in 2023 from 50.7 percent. The market expects this year to end with inflation above 142 percentaccording to the Survey of Market Expectations (REM) of the Central Bank.

The items that presented the most variation were Communication (10.5), Health (8.6), Housing, water and fuel (8.1), maintenance and home (8).

#DatoINDEC
Consumer prices (#IPC) increased 6% in June 2023 compared to May and 115.6% year-on-year pic.twitter.com/HrNYyNBS7H

— INDEC Argentina (@INDECArgentina) July 13, 2023

Inflation: why falling is not always good news

Roberto Pico

The slowdown in inflation is caused by a bad combination: decrease in activity level and consumption.

A job of the Argentine Chamber of Commerce (CAC) It had indicated that in May its Consumption Indicator (CI) stagnated compared to April and registered a slight advance of 1.2% once morest the same month last year.

“He IC accumulates 3.8% year-on-year growth in the first five months of the year, although everything indicates that consumption will continue to lose dynamism in the coming months. In fact, as of January, a downward trend is observed in the interannual growth rates exhibited by the CI, going from an advance of 6.1% in the first month of 2023 to 1.2% in May (with seasonally adjusted stagnation). ”, the work specified.

For its part, the Argentine Chamber of Medium Enterprises (CAME) indicated that “SME retail sales fell for the sixth consecutive month in June, standing 3.6% below the same month of 2022, when measured at constant prices.” .

“The first half of the year closed like this with a drop of 1.8% year-on-year. Also in the monthly comparison, 0.9% less was sold in June than in May”, indicated the entity.

Inflation: what happened in May, when the drop was registered

The consumer price index (CPI) rose 7.8% in May, below the 8.4% registered last April.

With this increase, retail inflation for the first five months of the year accumulated an advance of 42.2% and 114.2% for the last 12 months.

In May, the division with the highest increase was Housing, water, electricity and other fuels, an increase of 11.9%, as a result of the increase in rates for electricity and natural gas services through the network.

Behind were the Restaurants and hotels (9.3%) and Health (9.0%) items, the latter due to increases in medicines and prepaid medicine quotas.

In May, the division with the greatest impact on the evolution of the index was Food and non-alcoholic beverages, with an increase of 5.8%.

Within this category, the increases in Bread and cereals and in Milk, dairy products and eggs stood out.

with Telam Agency

Inflation: Argentina will be the country with the lowest economic growth in Latin America, according to a private survey

According to the survey that collects the opinion of more than 50 local and international banks and financial entities, The official dollar will go from the current 275 pesos to 452 pesos in December, which implies a 64 percent rise by the end of the year, while by the end of 2024, estimates place it at 924 pesos.

The Latin Focus survey indicates that the highest dollar for 2023 was projected by Itaú Unibanco ($650), followed by Banco Galicia ($629) and Eco Go ($628), while the lowest wholesale dollar was projected by UBS ($310), Moody’s Analytics ($318) and Econometrica SA ($340).

Inflation at the end of this year will stand at 116 percent and will increase to 129 percent annually in 2024, figures that were below the inflation outlook of the Central Bank’s Survey of Market Expectations (REM) of an increase in the cost of life of 142.4 percent at the end of the year.

Financial institutions and banks consulted by Latin Focus They forecast a drop in GDP for this year of 2.5 percentwhich indicates 0.1 percentage points less than a month ago, and 0.2 percent less than in 2024.

“Argentina will be the worst performing economy in Latin America this year, complicated by currency controls, skyrocketing inflation, drought and tight financial conditions,” the consultancy said in the report.

with Argentine News Agency

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#downward #trend #continues