WHEN Hurricane Milton approached Florida, it was triggered by extreme heat in the Gulf of Mexico. New analysis shows how the heat in the Gulf that exacerbated Hurricane Helene last month is 200 – 500 times more likely, due to human-caused global warming.
Helene, one of the deadliest hurricanes in US history, accelerated over the Gulf before hitting land with winds of 140 miles per hour.
The new analysis finds climate change increased the amount of rainfall caused by the storm by 10%, which left more than 220 people dead in six states as it raced north two weeks ago, leveling and submerging cities, destroying roads and cutting off supplies. water. Climate change also increased Helene’s wind intensity by about 13 miles per hour, or 11%.
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Burning fossil fuels has made hurricanes as powerful as Hurricane Helene about 2.5 times more likely than in pre-industrial times, according to the multinational scientific group World Weather Attribution. If the world warms by 2°C above pre-industrial levels, which would happen without major emissions cuts, storms like Helene would see an additional 10% of rainfall, according to the study.
“The heat that human activity adds to the atmosphere and oceans is like steroids for hurricanes,” said Bernadette Woods Placky, chief meteorologist at Climate Central, part of the attribution group, who added that hurricanes like Helene and Milton became “explosive” due to excess heat.
A study by Climate Central published on Monday found that sea surface temperatures around the Milton line were 400-800 times more likely to occur due to the climate crisis.
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“If humans continue to heat the climate, we will continue to see hurricanes rapidly turn into monster storms, resulting in more destruction,” he said.
The rapid analysis of Helene came before landfall of Hurricane Milton, which also grew in strength over the Gulf of Mexico, surprising scientists by swelling from a category one hurricane to a category five hurricane, with maximum winds of 180 miles per hour, in just nine hours.
The storm was expected to hit the Tampa area Wednesday evening, prompting a warning from the city’s mayor that residents would die if they did not evacuate.
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Both storms intensified rapidly over the Gulf, with researchers pointing to the extraordinary heat in seawater as the main factor fueling the storms. Since this summer, the surface and depth of water in the Gulf have been at extremely high, bathwater-like temperatures, with Milton expected to pass through areas of water near Tampa that are 2-3°C hotter than normal.
Hurricanes gain strength from hotter oceans and a warmer atmosphere, with this heat accelerating storms while filling them with extra moisture that is then released as heavy rainfall, causing major flooding like the one that occurred in inland communities of western North Carolina when Helene hit.
“The Gulf is still at very high temperatures and when you have warm temperatures like this, you’re more likely to get storms that intensify quickly,” said Brian McNoldy, a climate scientist at the University of Miami.
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Other factors, such as opposing wind shear that can dampen hurricanes, are also important in storm formation, but the long hot streak in the Gulf has made experts increasingly concerned about the potential for events like Helene and Milton, McNoldy said.
“We were nervously waiting, wondering if the storm would take advantage of all this heat,” he said. “It was like there was a powder keg waiting to be ignited. Now we have that spark. Milton was an extraordinary storm, truly extraordinary in history in terms of its level of intensification.”
Scientists note that a warmer atmosphere is also able to hold more water vapor, about 7% per degree of warming. Currently, the world has warmed by at least 1.3°C since the pre-industrial era and there are concerns that this warming may accelerate.
“Many people don’t realize only 1% of this extra heat goes into the atmosphere: so our global temperature records reflect only 1% of the total increase in Earth’s heat,” said Katharine Hayhoe, chief scientist at The Nature Conservancy and professor at Texas Tech University.
“Eighty-nine percent of this heat goes into the ocean where it contributes to rising sea levels, deadly marine heat waves, and stronger and more rapidly intensifying storms.”
Coming just a month before a US presidential election that barely featured the climate crisis as a campaign issue, these twin storms provided US voters with a sharp reminder of the forces unleashed by a warming planet that could impact almost every aspect of life.
Donald Trump, who has called the climate crisis a “hoax” and a “fraud” and promised to cut environmental regulations for oil and gas companies in exchange for campaign donations, had to cancel an appearance in Miami this week because of Milton’s fallout.
Meanwhile, her opponent Kamala Harris has acknowledged the dangers posed by global warming but has largely avoided the topic during rallies and interviews.
“We’re facing climate change right now and people are starting to make that connection,” said Kathie Dello, state climatologist for North Carolina, which was hit particularly hard by Helene. “There is a realization that we are seeing things we have never seen before, that we are vulnerable to climate change and we are not prepared to deal with its impacts.
“Climate itself has never been a major issue in elections, but the economy is suffering from hurricanes, schools are closed, people are without food, shelter and water. It’s all related to climate.”
The solution, according to the UN, is to stop burning fossil fuels. “Our future is in our hands,” Hayhoe said. (The Guardian/Z-3)
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