The industry analysts interviewed generally believed that my country’s continuous introduction of consumption promotion policies, superimposed on the pessimistic expectations in the early stage have been well digested, offline consumer demand has gradually recovered, and relevant sectors such as food and beverages, home appliances, and games involved in large consumption have become relatively optimistic institutions. direction.
With the advent of the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day “Double Festival”, the peak consumption season has officially started. The investment opportunities in the large-scale consumption field of the A-share market have also begun to be closely watched by investors.
The industry analysts interviewed generally believed that my country’s continuous introduction of consumption promotion policies, superimposed on the pessimistic expectations in the early stage have been well digested, offline consumer demand has gradually recovered, and relevant sectors such as food and beverages, home appliances, and games involved in large consumption have become relatively optimistic institutions. direction.
Food and beverage sector
Short-term adjustments provide configuration opportunities
Historical data shows that the food and beverage sector had good excess returns in September. In the past 10 years, the food and beverage industry index rose 6 times in September, with an average increase of nearly 2%; 6 of them outperformed the CSI 300 index, Outperformed by an average of 1.36 percentage points.
Since September, as of September 9, the food and beverage industry index has been weak, with a cumulative decline of 4.51%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index over the same period (a cumulative increase of 1.87% during the period). Still, 12 food and beverage stocks posted gains during the period.
The performance of related companies in the food and beverage industry maintained steady growth. Flush data shows that among the 84 listed companies in the food and beverage sector, 78 companies achieved a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to the parent in the first half of this year, accounting for more than 60%.
Deng Haiqing, chief economist of AVIC Fund, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that in the first half of the year, the overall operating performance of the food and beverage industry was relatively weak, which was further confirmed following the publication of the semi-annual report data, which led to the market performance of the food and beverage industry underperforming the Shanghai Stock Exchange since September. index. With the advent of the “double festival” consumption peak season and the introduction of consumption promotion policies in various places, the sales performance of the food and beverage industry is expected to pick up.
Flush data shows that since July, as of September 9, a total of 39 food and beverage companies have been intensively investigated by institutions including public funds, securities companies, insurance funds, sunshine private equity, QFII and other institutions, of which 9 companies have received more than 100 companies. The number of institutions that have participated in the survey is 383, and the cumulative number of institutions that have participated in the survey is 268 and 209, respectively, from Ganyuan Foods and Qiaqia Foods.
Judging from the survey feedback, Everbright Securities believes that at present, the fundamental outlook of each subdivision leader in the liquor sector is still stable. The driving force for the follow-up of the sector; the monthly sales feedback of each sub-segment of snack food, which also has the stocking market in the peak season, is relatively positive, the industry fundamentals are generally stable, and the short-term adjustment of the sector provides allocation opportunities.
Regarding the subdivision of liquor, Ping An Securities said that the mid-autumn season is approaching, and liquor manufacturers are actively preparing for the Mid-Autumn Festival. At present, the results of the interim report have been implemented. The high-end liquor industry has a high degree of certainty, stable demand and firm prices, and performance has maintained rapid growth. ; Sub-high-end wine was affected by the epidemic in the second quarter, and it is expected to achieve consumption recovery.
Home appliances “trade-in”
Open a new blue ocean of the market
In the context of promoting consumption, the “trade-in” of home appliances has become an important measure to stimulate the vitality of the industry. Recently, favorable policies for the home appliance industry have been continuously introduced to further upgrade and increase the green consumption of home appliances. On July 28, 13 departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued the “Notice on Several Measures to Promote the Consumption of Green Smart Home Appliances”, proposing to carry out the national home appliance “trade-in” campaign, promote green and smart home appliances to the countryside, and strengthen the recycling of used home appliances.
Recently, the steady growth and continuation policies introduced by many places have made consumption promotion a “highlight” and actively promoted the recovery of demand in the home appliance market. For example, on August 31, the General Office of the People’s Government of Hubei Province issued the “Notice on Several Measures to Further Stimulate Market Vitality and Stabilize Economic Growth”, proposing to increase the promotion of consumption by household appliances, and encourage localities to issue consumer coupons for individual consumers in the field of household appliances , or subsidize the purchase of home appliances by individual consumers to stimulate the vitality of the home appliance consumption market; the provincial finance will invest 50% of the government’s financial investment in issuing consumer coupons or consumer subsidies from June 2022 to December 2022. Grant grants.
In this regard, analysts generally believe that as low-carbon, green, and intelligent become the new trends in household appliance consumption, the “Double Festival” is approaching, the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” consumer market is recovering, and the “October” Golden Week is the sales of household appliances. peak season. With the support of policies and the promotion of holiday promotions, the “trade-in” of home appliances is expected to open up a new blue ocean in the market.
Since September, as of September 9, the home appliance industry index has been active, and the home appliance industry index has increased by 4.36%, outperforming the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index over the same period (up 1.87% during the period). Flush data shows that among the 84 listed companies in the home appliance sector, 47 companies achieved a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to the parent in the first half of this year, accounting for more than 50%.
Deng Haiqing said that the home appliance sector, as a post-real estate industry chain, is affected by the investment and sales of the real estate sector, and the overall market expectations are poor. With the announcement of the semi-annual report, the revenue and profits of the industry’s leading companies have shown relatively strong resilience, which has caused the demand for capital allocation in the market, making the overall performance of the sector stronger than the Shanghai Composite Index. With the gradual recovery of the real estate market and the impact of product upgrades in the home appliance industry and overseas exports, leading varieties of home appliance industries with steady growth in performance may bring better returns to investors.
Boosted by multiple benefits, institutions have paid more attention to some home appliance companies. Flush data shows that since July (as of September 9), a total of 28 home appliance companies have been intensively investigated by institutions including public funds, securities companies, insurance funds, Sunshine Private Equity, QFII, etc. Sanhua Zhikong, Dongfang Electric Heating, XGIMI Technology The cumulative number of institutions participating in the survey by five companies, including , Dunan Environment, and Joyoung Co., Ltd., are all 100 or more.
Liu Youhua, deputy director of the wealth research department of Pai Pai, told reporters: “I am optimistic regarding investment opportunities in the home appliance industry. In the first half of the year, due to the domestic macroeconomic impact, residents’ willingness to consume declined, which led to pressure on performance. Then, with the continuous recovery of the economy, the performance of It is expected to usher in a stabilization at the bottom; the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day consumption season are approaching, businesses will launch various promotional activities one following another, which will help increase residents’ willingness to consume; the cost side is expected to usher in an inflection point, which will help enhance corporate profitability; real estate policies continue to be loose It is expected to drive the recovery of the real estate market, thereby stimulating the demand for the home appliance sector.”
game industry
have good growth
The game industry is known as a “cash cow” and is expected to benefit from the “double festival” consumption trend.
In terms of market conditions, since July, under the weak A-share market, the game sector has bucked the market and strengthened. Since July (as of September 9), the game industry index has shown a trend of turbulence and consolidation. The industry index has increased by 0.72%, outperforming the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index over the same period (a cumulative decrease of -4.02% during the period).
In terms of performance, Flush data shows that in the first half of this year, among the 32 listed companies in the game sector, 10 companies achieved a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to the parent, accounting for more than 30%. Among them, the new products of the head companies of online games in the sub-segment were launched, driving the revenue of the segment to further increase. The revenue of the online game segment was 63.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%, and the growth rate was steady.
The performance improvement of game companies also comes from the strategic layout of going overseas. According to the “China Game Industry Report from January to June 2022” jointly released by the Game Working Committee of the China Audio and Digital Association, the China Game Industry Research Institute and Gamma Data, in the first half of 2022, the actual sales revenue of the Chinese game market was 147.789 billion Yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. Among them, from January to June, the actual sales revenue of my country’s self-developed games in overseas markets was 8.989 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 6.16%.
According to the official website of the State Press and Publication Administration, 45, 60, 67, and 69 editions will be issued on April 11, June 7, July 12, and August 1, respectively, in 2022, for a total of 241 editions. Version Number.
Deng Haiqing believes that the continuous release of game version numbers by the regulatory authorities may have some support for the performance of game companies. The re-release of the game version number and the game overseas strategy will bring deterministic performance growth to game companies. With the continuous release of operating performance, the game sector has a good configuration value.
Galaxy Securities said that at present, the trend of high-quality games in the game industry and the overseas dividends are obvious, and high-quality games can break through to achieve better performance. In the long run, the game industry still has good growth potential. Manufacturers with strong R&D strength will enjoy dividends, and market concentration and head stability will increase.
In terms of investment opportunities in the game sector, Liu Youhua said that the game sector is expected to usher in a market recovery. Although the growth rate of the game industry has slowed down, the growth momentum is still there, and there is still a lot of room for growth in superimposed games going overseas; With the continuous upgrade and the enrichment of game content, the game is more and more in line with reality; the game version number has resumed normal distribution, and more good games will be born in the future to drive the development of the game industry.
【Author: Zhao Ziqiang Ren Shibi】 (Editor: Zhao Yongjian)
