“Even within the Republican Party, many political analysts had written off Trump following the 2020 presidential election,” says Mouthaan. Trump refused to acknowledge his loss and pressured politicians in several states to change the outcome. And then of course there was January 6, 2021: following Trump’s stirring speech, his supporters stormed the Capitol while the president was silent for hours.
“This was a crucial moment,” says Mouthaan. “Shortly following the storming, the Republican party had the opportunity to expel Trump. The Republican faction leaders in both chambers of parliament blamed him.”
In this video you can see how the neck-and-neck race for the White House can now begin:
The House of Representatives tried to remove Trump from office because of his actions surrounding the storming. “If he had been removed as president, he would no longer have been able to stand as a candidate in these elections. But the right-wing politicians did not dare to do that. They kept Trump’s hand over his head and thus gave him a chance for a comeback.”
Suffe start
In November 2022, Trump announced that he would run for the White House once more. And at that moment it was not at all certain that he would also win his party’s nomination. “It started with the announcement,” says Mouthaan. “A lifeless speech for a half-full room on his estate, it was a bit dull.”
Trump was already not in good standing with the party at that time, because a few weeks earlier the Republicans had performed poorly in parliamentary elections. The Senate remained in Democratic hands, because some Republican candidates put forward by Trump lost significantly. Voters found the ‘Trump candidates’ too extreme or inexperienced.
Those losses were blamed on Trump. And it also pointed to the unpopular Supreme Court decision that all but banned abortion in some states. Trump had appointed the high judges who took this drastic step. “Trump had the aura of a ‘loser’ regarding him,” Mouthaan says.
Opponents not good enough
The fact that Trump won is partly because the other candidates did not make an impression in the primaries. “Ron DeSantis, the governor of Florida, would be the wunderkind. But voters saw him as Trump-light and would have preferred the real deal.”
Other candidates, such as Nikki Haley, pointed out that many Americans hated Trump and that the party had better put forward a new face, because Trump would lose, just like in 2020. “That argument did not really catch on, because polls indicated that Trump might well beat Biden in November.”
Trump’s unique bond with his supporters was also long underestimated. “Party leaders discovered that many Republican voters still support Trump. Powerful senators such as Lindsay Graham, who criticized Trump, were attacked by his supporters at airports or in the supermarket.” Many Republicans dropped their criticism of Trump. “That was the moment they might no longer distance themselves from him. And that made his comeback possible,” says Mouthaan.
The supporters remain loyal to Trump despite 91 charges once morest him. With each new indictment, Trump rises in the polls among Republican voters. “He often says that the justice system is following him because they actually want to get at his voters. People also feel that they are being ridiculed by the system or that they no longer matter. That they are no longer allowed to say anything because everything has become so politically correct. And they don’t believe that the prosecution of Trump is justified. The right-wing channels they watch and listen to are told every hour that it is a baseless witch hunt.”
Trump has put his mugshot on T-shirts that he sells on his website, turning his arrival at various courts into a media spectacle. “You just can’t ignore him, he is dominant in the culture, and most Republicans still love him.” Mouthaan adds: “Don’t forget that regarding 60 percent of right-wing voters believe Trump’s lie that the elections were ‘stolen’ by the Democrats last time. I encounter Trump fans who dry-eyedly claim that Trump on this is currently the rightful president, and Biden is a fraud.”
The Biden factor
The comeback of the former president is also possible because the incumbent president is so unpopular. Joe Biden only has the support of 40 percent of the population. “Americans saw prices rise due to historic inflation and their housing costs also go through the roof.” Many people had positive memories of the period when Trump was still in the White House.
All these elements led to Trump’s unexpectedly good performance in the primaries. “Donald Trump is one of the most talented politicians I have seen in my eighteen years here,” says Mouthaan. “He knows how to build a bond with his voters like no other politician. Republicans love him, are devoted to him. They want him back. Forgive him everything. The storming, the lawsuits, the hush money payments, it makes them none of that matters.”
‘No sense in another four years of chaos’
But according to the correspondent, the question is whether there are enough diehards–Trump fans are here to get him into the White House. “Trump has the support of only 35 percent of Americans in polls. And I even speak to Republicans who do not want another four years of chaos in the White House. If they stay home on Election Day, Trump’s comeback will come to nothing.”