2023-11-10 14:06:50
While the Republicans’ latest electoral results are disappointing, Donald Trump still seems impervious to legal trouble. The polls show him to be the winner in the presidential election once morest Joe Biden. But between now and November 2024, “a lot of things can still happen,” according to Nicole Bacharan, historian and specialist in the United States.
Wednesday evening, during one of the debates of the Republican primary in the United States, candidate Vivek Ramaswamy lost his temper once morest his own party. “We have become a party of losers. We lost in 2018, 2020 and 2022, where there was no red wave,” he explained. However, Donald Trump continues to highlight the victories of the conservatives.
Both are basically right and the indications on the health of the party are often contradictory. Electorally, the Republican Party performed poorly on Tuesday, November 7, election day in certain states. Democrat Andy Beshear was thus re-elected governor of Kentucky, a solidly Republican state, while at the same time Glenn Youngkin, governor of Virginia, failed in his bet to pass the local Parliament into Republican hands. Even more symbolic, the voters of Ohio decided to include the right to abortion in their Constitution.
>> Read once more regarding this: US state of Ohio approves protection of abortion rights
On the other hand, the Supreme Court remains firmly in the conservative camp and has revoked the federal right to abortion. Former tenant of the White House, Donald Trump remains the favorite in the polls, despite his numerous run-ins with the law.
When there is an electoral consultation, we see elements emerging and in particular the attachment to free access to abortion
Nicole Bacharan, historian and specialist in the United States
Alex Reed on the show Tout un monde on Friday, Nicole Bacharan, historian specializing in the United States, judges “the political situation in the United States extremely confused”. According to her, it is currently very difficult to make predictions.
“It’s going to be twelve months where so many things can happen, completely unexpected things (…) international crises, financial crises or others, in addition to things that are expected but we don’t know how they will turn out: the legal saga of Donald Trump or even the health of Joe Biden. We are therefore in great confusion,” she analyzes.
Abortion, Republican Achilles heel?
Although it is difficult to make predictions, the specialist nevertheless believes that the Democrats have a clear advantage on one issue: the right to abortion.
“When there is an electoral consultation, we see elements emerging and in particular the attachment to free access to abortion. It is something very strong and which will continue to play a role in the months which come. It will really be one of the major themes of the electoral campaign. The Democrats have an interest in it too, because it works, it mobilizes their electorate,” underlines Nicole Bacharan.
>> Read once more regarding this: Abortion, the issue that weakens Republicans during the “Midterms”
For this expert, Republicans and “pro-life” circles, therefore anti-abortion, had been seeking bans for decades, but this had not yet happened. It was therefore very easy to claim for it. But the situation has changed since the decision of the Supreme Court and those of several conservative states.
“All of a sudden, we see what that means in concrete terms, the tragedies of these women who have high-risk pregnancies, who are no longer able to get treatment, with doctors who do not dare to intervene for fear of end up in court. Cases of incest, cases of rape, finally, the whole reality (…) So during votes, access to abortion always wins, even in the most conservative states” , she specifies.
A conviction of Trump might “change something”
For his part, Donald Trump still seems able to bounce back, despite the legal troubles that continue to accumulate. On the contrary, the former American president succeeds in transforming his appearances in court into a political advantage
“He summons the cameras and the hearing that has just taken place turns into a big show of political propaganda with the theme ‘I am a martyr’, ‘I am a scapegoat’, ‘they want to silence me because I defend you, you real, good Americans. And for now, it’s working,” explains Nicole Bacharan.
Do you want to go back to 2016 and repeat the Trump experience with a man who, despite everything, has aged, become even tougher and returns with a much harsher plan for political revenge than eight years ago?
Nicole Bacharan, historian and specialist in the United States
“But many experts say that if the indictments do not harm him, a conviction might change something, particularly among independent voters, moderate Republicans or hesitant voters,” she tempers.
In other words, the Republican Party’s nomination of Donald Trump does not appear to be in danger, but an eventual victory in the presidential race might be hampered by these legal problems.
“Can we give Joe Biden a second term?”
For the historian, the Republican billionaire’s legal problems will transform the election into a sort of referendum on Donald Trump.
“Do you want to go back to 2016 and repeat the Trump experience with a man who, despite everything, has aged, has become even tougher and is coming back with a much harsher plan for political revenge than eight years ago?” will be the question asked of Americans, judges the historian.
But the referendum will also be on Joe Biden, she says. “It will also be a referendum on the confidence that we can have in the health of Joe Biden. I think that his age, the impression of physical fragility that he gives, the lack of energy, normally essential to a campaign electoral, all this will make the situation difficult for Joe Biden (…) His record is rather good on the economic and international level, but can we really entrust him with a second term?” asks Nicole Bacharan.
The reality is above all that there is a majority of Americans who have no desire to repeat the Biden-Trump match. “This simple repetition might dissuade a certain number of people from voting,” concludes the expert.
Comments collected by Eric Guevara-Frey
Adaptation web: Tristan Hertig
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