Domingo Horse pointed out that the government will continue to lose reservations and will be forced to impose more import restrictions In case there are no measures to order the exchange market. Thus, he ratified that it is necessary to move towards a full liberalization scheme and proposed a path of measures that impact the next administration and that will encourage the liquidation of exports.
Cavallo published an article in his blog personal in which he offers his view on the situation of the exchange market in the midst of an inflationary scenario and a shortage of dollars. There he tried to clarify some reports regarding an alleged proposal of his to double the exchange rate. He stated that he seeks a progressive scheme towards unification.
“The effective stabilization of the economy can only begin on the day that the unification and complete liberalization of the foreign exchange market”, he claimed. Cavallo pointed out that it is necessary to move from all current exchange rates, set by the Government, “to a truly unique and free exchange market, no restrictions on the movement of capital”.
Cavallo was direct in his analysis and considered that given the situation of the current variables it will be difficult for the Government to dispel “the expectation of a devaluation jump in the official market. In fact, he considered that it will increase as measures are not taken to correct the multiplicity of changes in the current scenario.
In this sense, it stated, as it had already proposed, that the change control should be applied onlyto foreign trade of goods. She also said when. “Now I insist that it will be essential to do so following the PASO if the result makes it clear that the future government considers that a single market and free exchange should be reached”he expressed.
And he deepened: “In the commercial market the exchange rate will continue to be determined by the Central Bank until complete unification. Of course, you must adjust it at least to the rate of inflation, to prevent it from suffering a real depreciation.
Cavallo explained that all other transactions will be processed through a free market “without any kind of restrictions y without the intervention of the Central Bank at all”. The former minister mentioned for these other operations those related “to real and financial services”, such as collections from service providers abroad, capital transfers, including repatriations and dividends”, income decided by direct or financial investors and hoarding without limitation of amounts. .
“The exchange rate that will result in this free market will have the ceiling imposed by the desire of holders of dollars in the country. or abroad to supply it because they are attracted by the high price that they will be able to obtain by selling their currencies in the present in comparison with what they expect them to be worth in the future”, he analyzed.
Critical of the management of the Frente de Todos, the former minister maintained that the announcement of a new government to advance towards a scheme of unification and total liberalization will represent a positive expectation and “it will cause, from a certain price of the free dollar, the tendency is to the real appreciationnot to depreciation. “This trend will be accentuated when the new government begins to adopt decisions that restore the balance between relative prices and fiscal accounts,” he said.
And he concluded: “The important thing regarding this exchange scheme for the transition is that the convergence towards the single and free exchange market will take place through the appreciation of the free exchange rate and exporters will have no reason to delay their exports because it will be clear that unification of the exchange market will not imply a significant devaluation jump of the commercial exchange rate”.
THE NATION