Since the beginning of this year, the price of refined oil has been adjusted 11 times, showing a trend of “ten rises, one fall and zero stranding”.
After the continuous rise, domestic refined oil prices will usher in a downward adjustment.
According to the calculation of Jinlianchuang, a commodity information agency, as of June 24, the eighth working day of this round of price adjustment cycle, the change rate of domestic reference crude oil was -5.21%, and the average price of reference crude oil was 113.45 US dollars per barrel, corresponding to the domestic gasoline price. , Diesel retail price limit should be reduced by 280 yuan / ton.
Jinlianchuang analyst Wang Shan said that there are only 2 working days left before the price adjustment window opens, and there is still room for a negative extension of the crude oil change rate; Tons, the cost of oil for car owners will also be reduced.
During this round of pricing cycle, the price of international crude oil futures fell sharply, from a high of $120/barrel to around $110/barrel. The Fed’s interest rate hike and investors’ concerns about subsequent demand growth have become the main reasons for the significant drop in oil prices. Bearish pressure.
At the same time, the U.S. government is looking for ways to cool oil prices, and the International Energy Agency has warned that high oil prices will affect the demand outlook.
As of the close on the morning of June 25, Beijing time, the price of WTI crude oil futures for August delivery rose 3.21% to close at $107.62 per barrel; the price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery rose 2.79% to close at $113.12 per barrel. bucket.
Since the beginning of this year, with the continuous rise of international oil prices, domestic refined oil prices have risen more or less. Up to now, there have been eleven price adjustments during the year, showing a trend of “ten rises, one fall and zero stranded”. After all the ups and downs were balanced, the retail price of gasoline and diesel increased by 2,720 yuan/ton and 2,620 yuan/ton respectively during the year; equivalent to the increase in price, 92# gasoline and No. 0 diesel increased by 2.14 yuan/liter and 2.23 yuan/liter respectively.
If this round of price adjustment is finally implemented, it will be the second time since 2022 that the retail price limit of domestic refined oil products has been lowered.
In terms of market sales, the recent wholesale prices of gasoline and diesel are basically in a downward channel.
Wang Shan said that recentlyShanghai PetrochemicalThe operating rate of the main refinery fell slightly due to a fire in the installation, but the operating rate of local refineries increased significantly due to the successive resumption of work of many private refineries, and the gasoline and diesel resources were in a supply situation; heavy rainfall in the south, and the construction of logistics and outdoor infrastructure projects were blocked, resulting in diesel demand. Continue to fade. In terms of gasoline, vehicle air conditioners increase vehicle fuel consumption, but high oil prices also restrict downstream consumption, and the increase in gasoline demand is limited.
Wang Shan said that in the later period, the international oil price may continue to fluctuate widely due to the combination of factors such as the Fed and the central banks of many countries raising interest rates and the shortage of crude oil supply.
According to the current calculation of the price adjustment cycle of refined oil prices, the price adjustment window for this round of refined oil products will open at 24:00 on June 28.
Editor: Guo Zhouyang
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