Original title: Domestic oil prices may fall for 5 consecutive years, but international oil prices are rebounding! 7 global oil giants make $87 billion
Domestic oil prices will usher in a new round of adjustment window on August 23. Since the beginning of this year, the domestic oil price adjustment has experienced a trend of “10 rises, 4 falls, and 1 stranded”. After 4 drops, oil prices fell by 0.87-1.07 yuan/liter.
Domestic oil prices have been lowered continuously, but international oil prices have rebounded recently. As of the close on August 20, the price of light sweet crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $0.27, or 0.30%, to close at $90.77 a barrel; London Brent crude oil futures for October delivery rose. $0.13, or 0.13%, to settle at $96.72 a barrel.
Affected by the weakening of the epidemic, global oil demand will usher in a peak season in January 2022, but U.S. crude oil production has not been able to effectively increase production, and market fundamentals have begun to fall short of demand. In February 2022, the international situation changed, OPEC kept its production plan unchanged, and international oil prices skyrocketed.
The performance of international oil majors rose sharply. According to the research report of Donghai Securities, in the first half of this year, the seven major international oil companies (Eni, Shell, Total Energies, Chevron, Exxon Mobile, bp, Equinor) achieved a total operating income of 910.208 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 64.36%; total net profit of 874.25 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 115.91%. Excluding the bp withdrawing from Russia, the six major oil companies achieved a total net profit of US$97.959 billion, a year-on-year increase of 203.24%. Regarding the trend of international oil prices, the international institution Goldman Sachs believes that if Iranian crude oil returns to the international market, its forecast for the price of Brent crude oil in 2023 will be lowered by $5-10/barrel from $125/barrel.
The trend of domestic oil prices in the second half of the year attracted attention. Affected by market conditions, in the first half of this year, the performance of oil giants was outstanding.
In the first half of 2022, PetroChina (601857.SH) is expected to achieve a net profit of 79.536 billion yuan to 85.036 billion yuan attributable to the parent, a year-on-year increase of 50% to 60%; it is expected to achieve a net profit of 87.231 billion yuan to 93.231 billion yuan following deducting non-returning to the parent company. PetroChina said that the main reason for the pre-increase in performance was that the company increased its efforts in oil and gas exploration and development, actively promoted the increase of reserves and production, insisted on improving quality and efficiency and low-cost development, as well as the rise in international oil prices, and the production and sales of crude oil and natural gas increased year-on-year.
During the same period, CNOOC (600938.SH) is expected to achieve a net profit of 70.5 billion to 72.5 billion yuan attributable to the parent, an increase of 37.2 billion to 39.2 billion yuan over the same period of the previous year, an increase of regarding 112% to 118% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent was 69.8 billion yuan to 71.5 billion yuan, an increase of 37.3 billion yuan to 39 billion yuan compared with the same period of the previous year, an increase of regarding 115% to 120% year-on-year.
According to the statistics of Times Weekly, in the first half of this year, PetroChina and CNOOC will achieve a total net profit of regarding 150 billion to 157.5 billion yuan, and a daily profit of 828 million to 870 million yuan. The net profit forecast of “two barrels of oil” alone has far exceeded the total net profit of “three barrels of oil” last year of 125.518 billion yuan.
The predicted performance of “two barrels of oil” in the first half of 2022 has risen sharply, which is closely related to the performance of the global oil market. PetroChina’s main businesses are sales, refining and chemicals, exploration and production, natural gas and pipelines; CNOOC focuses on oil and gas exploration, development and production. “Thanks to the rise in international oil prices, production growth and cost control, the profit level in the first half of the year has increased significantly.” CNOOC also regarded the increase in international oil prices as an important factor in the sharp increase in profitability in the pre-performance announcement.
Domestic oil exports are also increasing. According to data from the Xinhu Futures Research Report, China’s exports of refined oil products hit a three-month high in July. Among them, gasoline exports were 880,000 tons, an increase of 21% month-on-month, or regarding 230,000 barrels per day; diesel exports were 360,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 9%. , regarding 87,000 barrels per day.
After the last round of oil price adjustment, domestic oil prices are close to the level in early 2022. According to the statistics of the Times Weekly reporter, there will be 15 oil price adjustments in China in 2022, 10 of which will be rising. After the rise and fall, the retail price of gasoline and diesel increased by a maximum of more than 1.3 yuan per liter.
Tianfeng Securities Research Report believes that crude oil supply is steadily recovering, Libyan oilfields have resumed production, OPEC has increased production as planned, and the maintenance of important oilfields such as the North Sea has ended; in terms of demand, the summer travel peak in the northern hemisphere gradually peaked, gasoline and diesel demand began to decline, and inventories continued accumulation. The rebound in the second week of August was mainly due to the fall of the US CPI data from a high level, the adjustment of the US dollar index led to an increase in market risk appetite, and the general rebound in commodity prices.
On August 19, PetroChina closed at 5.18 yuan/share, up 1.37%; CNOOC closed at 14.84 yuan/share, up 2.98%; Sinopec (600028.SH), which did not disclose its performance forecast, closed at 4.14 yuan/share , edged up 0.24%.Return to Sohu, see more
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