It is maintained thanks to state support measures. Both consumer loans and equipment loans are on the rise. Internal consumption should remain moderate in the 3rd quarter.
Domestic demand in Morocco is holding up, even in a context of sharply rising consumer prices. After a 9.1% rise over the past year, instead of a 6.5% fall in 2020, it should hold up, mainly benefiting from support measures aimed at limiting the impact of imported inflation , on household purchasing power.
It must also be said that the context of low interest rates continues to stimulate this demand, in particular through loans. Indeed, the outstanding amount of consumer loans increased by 3.3% at the end of May compared to the same period last year, to reach 57 billion DH. For their part, transfers from Moroccans living abroad continue their upward trend, rising to 38.3 billion dirhams, up 5% over a sliding year. It should be noted that these transfers have shown a steady pace since 2020, when they amounted to 68 billion DH and nearly 94 billion DH in 2021. Thus, household consumption remains maintained, although on a less dynamic scale, estimates the HCP, posting an increase of 1.8%, in annual variation, instead of 13.6% during the same quarter of the previous year. This surplus would have benefited, to a large extent, expenditure on services, in particular that of health and communication, while expenditure devoted to manufactured products, in particular imported, would have fallen significantly. At the same time, another indicator attests to the maintenance of this internal demand. These are jobs created which increased by 40,000 on 1is quarter, at the national level.
For its part, the investment continues, according to the DEPF. On the one hand, the investment of the general State budget increased by 16.7% over the same period and on the other hand, imports of capital goods and semi-finished products are still on a favorable trend with increases of 14% and 50% respectively. Especially since, since the beginning of this year, the outstanding amount of equipment loans has improved by 2% to 175 billion dirhams. That said, over a rolling year, it was down 2.8%.
However, according to the HCP, investment continued to decline on 2e quarter of 2022, at a rate of 1.3%, in annual variation. This development would have been, in particular, attributable to the continuation of the trend of destocking by companies, which began at the beginning of the year, particularly in the extractive industries sector, and to the slowdown in investment in construction. Investment in industrial products appears to have improved slightly, in the wake of an increase in imports of industrial capital goods. It should be recalled that 15 investment projects were approved during the investment commission meeting on April 20, for a total amount of 10.8 billion DH. They should make it possible to create 2,907 direct and indirect jobs in various sectors of economic activity, including the telecommunications sector (nearly 53% of the total projected amount), followed in second position by the industry sector ( with a share of nearly 30%). At 3e quarter, national domestic demand should remain moderate, given the context of the continued slowdown in household consumption and investment. In annual variation, its growth rate would stand at 1.6%. Under these conditions, value added excluding agriculture would grow by 2.9%. Most of this increase would be attributable to the tertiary sector, in particular public services and tourism, while the secondary sector should continue to recover at a moderate pace, driven by a 1.3% increase in the added value of manufacturing industries.
External demand for Morocco on the rise thanks to a price effect
Foreign demand addressed to Morocco also continues to recover. Exports reached over the first 5 months 176 billion DH, up 40.7% compared to the same period a year earlier. This performance is indebted in particular to the phosphates and derivatives sector, which benefited from a favorable price effect in favor of fertilizers, the price of which more than doubled, going from 3,400 DH/ton to more than 8,000 DH. If we look at the quantities, they fell by 10.2%. For their part, car sales increased by 24% to 41 billion dirhams. The agricultural and agrifood sectors noted the same level of progress with outflows of around 40.2 billion DH. In addition, imports increased by 39% to 82.6 billion dirhams, driven in particular by the energy bill which amounted to 54.6 billion, nearly double its level recorded a year earlier.
