2023-10-03 16:29:00
He blue dollar opened this Tuesday at $804adding three pesos in relation to the previous day, while the stock market dollar or MEP advances to $724.74 and the Available with Settlement at $835.79. cYou should remember that in this case there may be variations in prices depending on the security with which the transaction is carried out.
The appetite to dollarize the portfolios of savers and investors continues to put upward pressure on the prices of the different exchange rates. As some analysts explained to PERFIL, we will continue to see these jumps in prices until the elections. There are even those who are already making a strong jump following the elections. For example, the economist Damián Di Pace assured today on Channel E that the price of the parallel might reach 1,200 pesos following the ballot.
20 days before the elections, the dollar travels towards 4 digits
For its part, the official dollar remains at the levels defined by the Government and today operates at $367, while the wholesale price, which governs foreign trade operations, operates in the order of 350 pesos.
In turn, andThe Banco Nación dollar is at $365.50.
According to the economist Salvador di Stéfano, the exchange rate frozen at $350 for exports reveals that sales abroad will lose competitiveness. “We do not see that the government continues to enable imports at the same rate as the first months of the year. Imports in the last 3 months stood at an average of US$7,000 million, and are effectively paid for the equivalent of US$5,000 million, accumulated a debt in the future that must be settled in the next government,” he said in his daily analysis.
The dollar will continue to rise
In that analysis he stated that ““All roads lead us to a higher wholesale dollar and alternatives than the current ones.”.
Measures aimed at improving export programs by settling 25% in the capital market, such as the elimination of withholdings and the arrival of funds from abroad to settle in the capital market, can temper the correction in the exchange rate, but they do not change the background of the issue. Argentina has scarce dollar flows, and a flow of pesos that grows at a rate greater than 10% monthly.
In addition, Di Stéfano added some numbers to his analysis to show that a correction in exchange rates can still be expected.
“The reserves (of the BCRA) in one year went from US$37,600 to US$27,000 million, the total monetary liabilities went from $12.4 trillion to $27.7 trillion. In the same period, the wholesale dollar increased 137.6%, the blue dollar 177.2% and the equilibrium dollar 210%. There is still room for a correction in exchange rates,” he assured.
Bonds on the decline and country risk on the rise
As Cohen explains in his daily analysis, sovereign bonds still cannot find a floor. During yesterday’s session, at the opening of October, they experienced another unfavorable day, falling on average by 1.3% and placing their parities at around 29%. “In this context, the country risk rose 58 basis points, standing at 2,600 bp and approaching its maximum in 2023, which was 2,656 bp at the end of April. Bonds under local law registered a drop of 1.6%, while bonds under foreign law decreased by 1.2%. Since the PASO, these bonds have accumulated a loss of 17% in dollars,” the financial operator detailed.
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