There is no single cause that explains why the blue dollar entered a new “exchange summer”, even despite inflation in February it touched 4.7% monthly. The agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) already closed, the rate hike of the Central Bank (BCRA) and even the closing of paritarias are some of the reasons that economists give to explain why the parallel exchange rate touched this Monday the lowest value in almost five months.
Today the blue dollar was sold in the porteño trees for $195, a value $1.50 lower (-0.7%) compared to Friday’s close and $27.50 away (-12.4%) from its historical nominal record ($222.50, on January 27). The last time a similar value was recorded was on October 25, when the informal ticket was positioned at $194, a figure that at that time was considered a historical maximum.
For FMyA economist Fernando Marull There are three structural factors currently pushing the free dollar lower. In the first place, because exchange rates fell in Latin America, such as Chile and Brazil. The second reason is that the agreement with the IMF, which “significantly” lowered crisis expectations. And finally, because of the two increases in interest rates established by the Central Bank.
“Between March and April, the banks lowered their credit quotas by one step and raised rates, This implies that there is less financing in the market and more than one had to exchange dollars to meet working capital needs.. In addition, the Government enabled parity express, this implies that salary increases will have to be paid in May and in some cases retroactive. Money is not elastic, and there is no way to face the payment of salaries if it is not resorting to savings, which are generally in dollars”, agreed financial analyst Salvador di Stefano.
These factors will continue to be present in the short term, especially if the BCRA raises interest rates once more to try to reach positive real rates. “Situationally, it might try some moderate rebound ($200/$210) in the short term. But in the long term the dollar should remain relatively stable and losing once morest inflation.added Marull.
Today the financial dollars do not register great variations. The MEP dollar through the purchase-sale of bonds AL30 is sold at $191.10 (-0.6%), while the dollar counted with liquidation (CCL) appears on screens at $190.68 (+0.3%).
The official wholesale dollar reaches $112.58, so the gap with the blue drops to 73%. Meanwhile, the official retail dollar it was offered in the main banks of the country at an average price of $118.01, according to information published daily by the BCRA. The saving dollar, with a surcharge of 65%, it reached $194.71, almost the same value as the parallel one.
The beginning of the week started with the country risk on the rise. Today the index produced by JP Morgan stood at 1,733 basis points, 19 points higher compared to the previous close (+1.7%). The bonds of the last debt swap operate in negative terrain, with falls of up to 1% abroad (AL35) and 1.1% at the local level (Bonar 2035).
The S&P Merval operates at 91,906 units, 1.3% less compared to Friday. The decline is led by the shares of Transportadora de Gas del Norte (-2.4%), Pampa Energía (-2.1%), YPF (-2%), Banco Macro (-1.9%) and Grupo Financial Galicia (-1.9%). “At the local level, we will be attentive to news that denote a certain consensus within the ruling coalition that gives birth to greater political stability”, they indicated from the Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI).
