Financial exchange rates continue to hit records: today the MEP dollar and the cash with liquidation (CCL) continued to advance and set a new historical nominal maximum. The dynamic was not replicated in the blue dollar, since on the first day of the week it took a break and even fell two pesos.
“Pressures on parallel dollars remain in force amid macroeconomic uncertainty, high inflation and the level of monetary issue. As of this week we will see if the change of strategy in monetary policy, via the creation of an interest rate corridor, may or may not provide a measure of tranquility. The increase in reserves is another point that has not been consolidated, although the Central Bank (BCRA) bought 90 million during the past week, that figure is far from the levels required to give the Central Bank more solvency,” he considered. Emilse Córdoba, director of Bell Inversiones.
Today the MEP dollar or “Bolsa”, which makes it possible to circumvent the exchange trap and become legally dollarized without restrictions, appeared on screens $294.29, an advance of $3 compared to Friday’s close (+1.0%). So far this month, it has already climbed $46.5 (+18.6%).
The same thing happened with the dollar counted with liquidation (CCL) or “Cable”, instrument used to transfer dollars to a bank account outside of Argentina. Today it was offered at $303.92, a daily rise of $2.5 (+0.8%). In the first two weeks of July, it jumped $52 (+20.3%).
“Looking at the monetary fundamentals, the amount of pesos in the economy (private M3), the convergence level of the CCL is $303.6, so they are practically aligned. Can the free dollar still have a run to the upside? Yes, more pesos are on the way to finance the Treasury. Additionally, the market paid much higher ‘panic’ prices in the exchange crisis of October 2020, when there was a overshooting of the parallel exchange rate. Returning to this scenario of exchange stress would imply that the CCL might shoot up to $412 today”, they considered from the Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI).
At the start of the week the blue dollar was offered in the little trees of the city porteña at $291, a drop of $2 from the previous close (-0.7%). Although, if you analyze the route I have taken since the beginning of July, it has already accumulated an advance of $52 (+21.7%).
This followingnoon President Alberto Fernández referred to the blue dollar and said that its value rises due to “tourists who buy dollars to travel”, at the time in which he remarked that the cash with liquidation advance “by some speculators”.
At the windows of Banco Nación, the official retail exchange rate appeared stable at $135. If to that is added a 30% PAIS tax and another 35% Profits, it results in a dollar “savings” of $222.75. On the other hand, with 30% of PAIS and 45% on account of Profits, it gives the new “tourist” dollar at $236.25.
The official wholesale dollar, whose price rises drop by drop due to the controls of the Central Bank (BCRA), was sold to $128.91. Thus, the gap with the blue dollar was 125%; when contrasted with the dollar counted with liquidation, today the highest value in the market, was almost 135%.
Country risk stood at 2,764 basis points, 10 units more than the previous close (+0.4%). Despite the fact that it was a slight advance, it once more marked a new maximum value since the Government restructured the debt with private parties, in September 2020.
so far this month, the index produced by JP Morgan accumulates a rise of 390 points (+16.4%). Not only the local noises have their effect, but also the fears of recession that investors have at a global level and the tightening of the monetary policy that the Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) is carrying out.
The explanation of why the Argentine risk grew so much in recent weeks lies in the bonds of the last debt swap, which have been touching minimums. Today, sovereign bonds traded with disparate variations: abroad they fell by 1.3% (GD35D) and at a local level, 1.1% (AE38).
With the focus on the stock market, today the S&P Merval rebounded 1.2% and stood at 105,441 units. The Buenos Aires stock market panel was led by Edenor (+5%), Sociedad Comercial del Plata (+4.7%) and Banco Macro (+4%).
The same trend was replicated in the Argentine stocks listed in New York. Edenor shares advanced 9.3% followed by Globant (+7.7%), Tenaris (+4.2%), Banco Francés (+4.1%), and Irsa (+3.6 %).
