In the past month, the dollar has undergone considerable fluctuations. It peaked at the beginning of August, surpassing $4,160, while it dipped to around $4,000 during the second week. Reference image.
Foto: Getty Images/Science Photo… – KTSDESIGN
For the second consecutive day, the value of the dollar in Colombia continues to rise. On Wednesday, August 28, the currency closed at $4,098, marking an increase of $61 compared to Tuesday’s closing rate of $4,037. Throughout the day, the dollar reached highs of $4,099 and lows of $4,037.
The Representative Market Rate (TRM) set by the Financial Superintendency is $4,045.64 for August 28, 2024.
You may be interested in: What to expect for the dollar now that the Fed is set to begin cutting rates.
Oil prices and other news
Oil prices fell for a second consecutive day after the market closed on Tuesday, extending a volatile trend so far this month, as market attention shifted to Libyan supplies, key technical indicators, and U.S. inventory data.
Brent crude was trading below $79 per barrel on Tuesday, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) below $75. Traders were focused on the weekly stock figures due on Wednesday, following an industry report that indicated a further decline in crude stocks.
Meanwhile, U.S. mortgage rates declined again last week, reaching their lowest level since April 2023, which led to a modest increase in home purchase applications.
The contract rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell for the fourth week in a row to 6.44%, the longest period of declines this year, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released on Wednesday. This provided a slight boost to home purchase applications during the week ending August 23, following a significant decrease in the previous period.
Mortgage rates are moving in sync with Treasury yields, which have recently been declining on expectations that the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts in September. Minutes from the central bank’s July meeting released last week revealed that several members believed there was a valid argument for reducing rates at that time, and central bank Chair Jerome Powell noted on Friday that “the time has come for monetary policy to tighten.”
Later this week, markets will be looking for additional U.S. economic data, including growth and employment figures, which may provide further insights into the monetary policy outlook.
Projections for the price of the dollar
▶️ In the latest Monthly Survey of Expectations conducted by Economic Analysts at the Bank of the Republic (July), the majority predicts that the exchange rate will close the year between $4,000 and $4,100.
▶️ Analysts who participated in the Fedesarrollo Financial Opinion Survey (July, the latest available) estimate that the exchange rate will be $4,050, a slight decrease from last month’s forecast of $4,080.
▶️ The latest projections from BBVA Research (June) indicate that both domestic and foreign monetary policies will be the primary factors determining the behavior of the exchange rate. “The peso will depreciate in the second half of the year, stabilizing around $4,200 per dollar in 2025.”
▶️ César Pabón, director of Economic Research at Corficolombiana, stated this week that the dollar is likely to be volatile due to ongoing uncertainty, but will remain between $4,000 and $4,300.
💰📈💱 Have you heard the latest news yet? economic? We invite you to check them out in The Spectator.
The Recent Fluctuations of the Dollar in Colombia: An In-Depth Analysis
Over the past month, the dollar has experienced significant fluctuations. Its highest point was reached at the beginning of August, when it registered more than $4,160, while its lowest point was around $4,000 during the second week.
Foto: Getty Images/Science Photo… – KTSDESIGN
For the second consecutive day, the dollar’s value in Colombia continues to rise. On Wednesday, August 28, the currency closed at $4,098, which translates into an increase of $61 compared to Tuesday’s close ($4,037). Throughout the day, the currency reached highs of $4,099 and lows of $4,037.
For its part, the Representative Market Rate (TRM) set by the Financial Superintendency is $4,045.64 for August 28, 2024.
You may be interested in: What to expect for the dollar now that the Fed is set to begin cutting rates.
Market Influencers: Oil Prices and Economic Indicators
Oil prices fell for a second consecutive day after the market closed on Tuesday, extending a choppy streak so far this month, with traders focusing on Libyan supplies, key technical indicators, and U.S. inventory data.
Brent crude was trading below $79 a barrel on Tuesday, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark below $75. Traders’ attention was also focused on weekly stock figures due on Wednesday, after an industry report indicated a further drop in crude holdings.
Key Economic Insights
Meanwhile, U.S. mortgage rates fell again last week to their lowest level since April 2023, spurring a modest rebound in home purchase applications.
- The contract rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage fell for the fourth week to 6.44% – the longest stretch of declines this year.
- This decline provided a small boost to home purchase applications in the week ending August 23.
- Mortgage rates are moving in tandem with Treasury yields, which have been falling recently, suggesting a potential shift in monetary policy.
Projections for the Price of the Dollar
According to the latest surveys and expert projections:
| Source | Projected Dollar Rate | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of the Republic (July Survey) | $4,000 – $4,100 | Most analysts project this range for the end of the year. |
| Fedesarrollo Financial Opinion Survey (July) | $4,050 | Slight decrease from previous forecast. |
| BBVA Research (June) | $4,200 by 2025 | Suggests ongoing devaluation in the second half of the year. |
| Corficolombiana (César Pabón) | $4,000 – $4,300 | Volatility expected due to constant uncertainty. |
Potential Impact on Consumer Behavior
As the dollar fluctuates, consumer behavior can also change significantly. Here are some practical tips for navigating these economic waters:
- Shopping Smart: Keep an eye on prices and consider timing your purchases for when the dollar is lower.
- Investment Decisions: Evaluate your investment strategy in light of changing currency values.
- Long-term Planning: Stay informed about projected trends to prepare for significant purchases or investments.
Conclusion and Closing Thoughts
Monitoring the fluctuations of the dollar in Colombia is more than just a numeric event; it’s about understanding its impacts on your daily life, from shopping habits to long-term investments. By staying informed, you can make better decisions that align with current economic trends.
💰📈💱 Have you heard the latest news yet? economic? We invite you to see them in The Spectator.