The volatility of the international markets became a constant during 2022. Between the increase in inflation at a global level, the rise in interest rates to contain prices and the armed conflicts, the main stock markets in the world turned red and the aversion to risk prevailed among investors. And today was no exception.
Yesterday the United States released the inflation data for September, a figure that was higher than expected, which would force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to continue with its tougher monetary policy. Despite the bad data, on Thursday the markets closed in the green. But in the last round of the week, the trend reversed.
“The rebound that marked the market yesterday was due to technical factors given the strong record of sales that marked the North American market. To this is added that the strong rise led to the belief that the IPC had finally reached a ceiling, which was taken as an optimistic signal by the market. But the last publication of the IPC also registered increases despite the negative data, and the following day they ended up collapsing”, they remarked from Cohen Investment. This is what was observed today in the world’s stock markets.
On Wall Street, in tune with the fall of the main US indices, the Argentine shares listed there (ADR) operated in negative territory. Mercado Libre papers sank 7.9%, followed by Ternium (-6.4%), Tenaris (-5.8%) and Loma Negra (-4.4%).
While, the S&P Merval traded at 137,290 units, 2.5% less than yesterday. In the local stock market panel, the biggest drops were for Loma Negra (-5.2%), Transportadora de Gas del Sur (-4.1%), Telecom Argentina (-3.8%) and Cresud (-3 ,4%).
As for the bonds of the last debt swap, this Friday they fell to 3.1% abroad (Global 2030) and 3.3% locally (Bonar 2041). Consequently, the country risk advanced 27 units and stood at 2,827 basic points (+1%).
After having scored three consecutive raises, today the dollar blue cut the bullish streak which caused the arrival of a new tourist dollar at $314. In the last wheel of the week, the US bill to be traded informally It fell back $1 and was positioned at $290. Even so, when observing the accumulated of the short week, the parallel exchange rate registered a total advance of $13.
Financials did not register large variations. The MEP dollar remained stable at $299.04 (-0.1%); Meanwhile he counted with liquidation (CCL) appeared on screens $312,89, $1 less than the previous wheel (-0.3%).
It should be noted that the Qatar dollar came into effect on Thursday, although it had been rumored for weeks that the Government would raise the exchange rate for travel, especially given the proximity of the World Cup. In order to contain the outflow of foreign currency for trips abroad, a 25% surcharge was added to the Personal Assets account for card purchases greater than US$300.
Namely, to the retail dollar ($157.25 at Banco Nación) we must add a 30% PAIS tax, 45% on Profits (it rose ten percentage points in July) and, now, 25% on Personal Assets. In short, with 100% tax charges, the official price is multiplied by two: today the dollar card costs $314.50.
“As we expectthe convergence of financial exchange rates towards the Qatari dollar is being rapid, which puts a floor around 100% on the exchange rate gap. In this way, the Argentine economy ‘works’ with gap levels with a growing trend since 2019, with the negative effects on foreign trade and inflationary expectations”, remarked from Delphos Investment.
In the meantime, the official wholesale exchange rate was traded at $151.64. They were 32 cents more than yesterday (+0.2%). Contrasting with blue, the gap difference between both quotes was positioned at 98%; against the CCL, the highest value in the foreign exchange market, it amounts to 106%.
“The limits to accumulate reserves under the current scheme of exchange rate appreciation are evident. The trade balance was again negative in August (US$300 million), as in the previous two months. The government’s response in September was to improve the price received by the soybean complex in order to encourage liquidation. The measure was effective, but short-lived”, they said from the Analytica economic consultancy, explaining why the Central Bank once again put itself in a selling position.
THE NATION