The blue dollar rally continues. After having remained calm since the end of February, a combo of “bad news” for Argentina broke with the exchange rate summer that the free exchange rates were going through. Today they are close to breaking the $210 barrier, when just a week ago they were around $190.
For the sixth consecutive round, the parallel exchange rate advances. This Tuesday it is sold in the Buenos Aires trees at $209, $3.50 more expensive than in the previous day (+1.7%). If it is contrasted with last Monday, when it was still selling at $195 -a value that it had held for a whole week-, it has already accumulated a rise of $14.
For Fernando Marull, an economist at FMyA, there are several factors that explain why free dollars woke up. Among them, a “more difficult” global context (a new rate hike by the United States Federal Reserve is coming in May), the increased state spending “due to the new Platita plan” that is equivalent to 0.3% of GDP , and the possibility that the Central Bank (BCRA) will have to tighten the stocks to buy reserves once more. “It was striking that the dollar did not react”, mentioned.
For the second consecutive round, financial dollars remain stable, following last week they registered a rise of $18. Today the MEP dollar through the purchase and sale of AL30 bonds is sold at $208.29 (+0.2%); Meanwhile he dollar counted with liquidation (CCL) it is offered at $209.14 (-0.1%).
“In a context of strong inflationary pressure, acceleration of the crawling peg (daily devaluation) and a CCL that hit lows in real terms in recent years, last week’s rebound was somewhat to be expected in the market, where we saw some profit-taking on local currency assets. The uncertainty regarding the fulfillment of goals with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), focusing on the primary deficit and the accumulation of reserves, did not help in this regard, how neither the news of new subsidies and the tax on unexpected profits”added Lucas Yatche, head of strategy and investments at Liebre Capital.
