Dollar rises, US unemployment rate falls

Around 5 p.m., the Dollar index took 0.38% to 98.68 points. Against the euro, the dollar gained 0.27% to 1.1038 dollars for one euro.

The U.S. dollar was climbing on Friday as the unemployment rate neared its pre-pandemic level in the United States, leaving more room for the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to fight inflation.

Around 3:00 p.m. GMT (5:00 p.m. in Paris), the Dollar index, which compares the greenback to a basket of other major currencies, took 0.38% to 98.68 points.

Against the euro, the dollar gained 0.27% to 1.1038 dollars for one euro.

The unemployment rate continued to fall in the United States in March, by 0.2 points, and fell to 3.6%, now approaching its pre-pandemic level, when it was at its lowest in 50 years.

“There is growing evidence that the labor market is very tight, as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell pointed out,” said UniCredit analyst Daniel Vernazza.

In mid-March, Mr. Powell had already described the tension in the labor market as “unhealthy”, thus signaling his desire to tighten monetary policy.

“The probability that the Fed raises its rates by 50 basis points at its next meeting increases”, summarizes Mr. Vernazza.

If the Fed should therefore continue to tighten its monetary policy, across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) is currently less determined.

Inflation, however, reached 7.5% over one year in March in the euro zone, fueled by the war in Ukraine which is driving up energy prices.

“The data of the day will perhaps force the ECB to follow the opinion of the market, which expects a rise in European rates of 40 to 50 basis points by the end of the year”, estimates Craig Erlam, Oanda analyst.

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“It seems increasingly likely that the ECB will accelerate the tightening of its monetary policy, and we now expect a rate hike in July,” said Andrew Kenningham, analyst at Capital Economics.

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