Beyond the obvious surprise represented by the passage of the engineer Rodolfo Hernández to the second round of the elections for the Presidency of the Republic, in the week that begins the markets could experience a temporary relief in terms of the uncertainty that has been seen not only in terms of the dollar, but of country risk and the cost of public debt.
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According to analysts consulted by EL TIEMPO, it is possible that in the coming days the tension will drop a little and behaviors will be seen with a dollar losing ground, some appreciation in the shares and a better behavior of the cost of public debt, measured by interest rates. treasury bonds (TES).
“It is possible that, between the first and second rounds in the country, the assets will recover the ground lost prior to the second round, as happened in Chile.as long as the candidates who go to the second round moderate their tone with the aim of attracting the interest of the center voters, ”says Juan David Ballén, director of Strategy and Investment of the brokerage firm Casa de Bolsa.
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In turn, for the week that begins, according to Felipe Campos, manager of Economic Research at the Alianza Group, the expectation is that the dollar will start falling on Tuesday, between about 100 and 130 pesos, to settle close to 2,800 pesos, while shares in Colombia could appreciate between 3 and 4 percent.
According to Campos, in terms of public debt, TES could be valued between 30 and 40 basis points, especially long-term ones, which are the ones that have most reflected political uncertainty, accompanied by the country risk indicator, which could drop some points.
And they point out that in the midst of a scenario that opens up a probability that the final electoral results will be different from what the polls have marked up to now, the analyst points out that after a period of between two and three days, the markets would review again prospects for the second round.
“In Chile, the experience was that there were two positive days after the first round and for the second round investors’ concerns returned. There was not a big jump in the votes obtained by Gustavo Petro, corrected by the increase in the electoral population,” added Campos.
bets change
And he adds that the betting market, which changes continuously, already puts Rodolfo Hernández with 58 percent against Petro’s 41 percent, while on Saturday his numbers were 19 percent against 62 percent, which could mean a comeback only comparable to that of Donald Trump, who 21 days before the elections was at 8 percent compared to 92 percent for Hillary Clinton.
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For his part, Ballén explains that, in the case of Colombian shares, although up to now they have presented a better performance than the shares of the region due to the takeover bids promoted by the Gilinski Group, it is possible that they will continue to rise because if Gustavo Petro does not win, Ecopetrol’s shares could return to the rise as the possibility of banning oil exploration is mitigated.
“There is an imbalance, for example, in the share of Ecopetrol, which is 25 percent below its peer Petrobras, from Brazil, assets that have been punished by the markets in recent weeks,” says Campos.
But Ballén warns that, in all cases, Once the elections in the country are over, international fundamentals will continue to have a significant influence on the future trend of Colombia’s financial assets.
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This Monday the markets will be closed and on Tuesday the assets to be aware of are the dollar, as well as the ADRs on the New York Stock Exchange, especially those of Ecopetrol and Bancolombia, since they are the most traded shares in the country. and in that stock market, according to Felipe Campos, manager of Economic Research of Grupo Alianza.