Does improved consumer confidence mean the US economy has outgrown the recession?

Recent official data revealed an improvement Consumer confidence in the US economy During the current month of December, with the continued decline in high inflation.

According to the “Conference Board” data, the latest consumer confidence index issued by a business think-tank recorded a level of 108.3 points this month, compared to 101.4 points in November.

Economists had expected the index to come in at 101, according to Refinitiv estimates.

This reading is the highest for the index since last April.

Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said: “Current situation and expectations indicators have improved due to consumers’ more positive view of the economy and jobs. Inflation expectations fell in December to their lowest level since September 2021, coinciding with declines.” Recent gas prices are the main driver.

The national average for regular gasoline fell to $3.11 a gallon on Wednesday, and gas prices have not been this low since July 2021.

For his part, said the chief economist of “Food Bonds”, Christopher S. Roebke, according to CNN: “You have to hide under a rock not to see petrol prices at the pump have fallen regarding two dollars from a high of five dollars in June this year… Consumers were more concerned regarding higher prices than they were trying to get They found a new, higher-paying job, but they are now more confident as price pressures ease.”

A recent survey showed that while consumers’ intentions to spend money on vacations had improved, their plans to buy homes and purchase big-ticket appliances had been put on hold.

US home sales fell in November for the tenth consecutive month, down 7.7% from last October, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.

Home sales have reached their weakest levels since May 2020, when the pandemic brought the real estate market to a standstill.

Consumer confidence, as measured by this and other surveys such as the University of Michigan’s Consumer Confidence Index, was mostly on a downward trajectory for most of 2022 as the country grappled with the highest rates of inflation in four decades.

During 2019, the average reading of the main consumer confidence index reached 128.5 points.

Despite a barrage of economic headwinds, for much of the year consumers remained relatively resilient and kept spending thanks in part to a strong labor market, higher savings levels, and much of the pent-up demand from the pandemic.

However, these spending patterns appear to be slowing, as data released last week by the Commerce Department showed that US retail sales fell sharply in November.

Share:

Facebook
Twitter
Pinterest
LinkedIn

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Recent Articles:

Table of Contents