Several regions in the eastern Mediterranean are still afraid of a severe earthquake in the near future, given the strong earthquake that struck Syria and Turkey, on the sixth of February, and left tens of thousands dead and injured, amid questions regarding whether scientists really suggest a “catastrophe” will occur. more severe.”
And while southern Turkey recorded, on Monday evening, a new earthquake of 6.4 degrees, in a tremor felt by residents of neighboring countries such as Egypt and Lebanon, questions were raised regarding whether the occurrence of a large earthquake was a warning of another upcoming earthquake that would be more severe and more severe in terms of losses.
According to the US Geological Survey, the probability that a strong earthquake will be a warning and a prelude to a stronger earthquake within the next three days is very weak, because it does not exceed 6 percent.
And the source stated that in 94 percent of the cases, the initial earthquake is not followed by a stronger tremor than in the following days.
In California, for example, data indicate that regarding half of the strongest earthquakes were preceded by earthquakes.
However, scientists point out that it is not possible at this time to know whether the major earthquake will be followed by another more severe one in the following period.
And the American Authority explains that predicting earthquakes needs to determine three main points: location, timing, and intensity.
Geologists question the words of some experts who claim to predict earthquakes, and warn that what they say is nothing but “loose talk.”
Recently, a Dutch research tweet was circulated saying that a strong seven-magnitude earthquake would occur “sooner or later” in and around Turkey.
The researcher’s critics responded that he promoted very general talk, because Turkey is located on a line that used to record earthquakes, and accordingly, talking regarding the possibility of an earthquake in this region is similar to talking regarding the possibility of a volcano erupting in an area known for this disaster, such as Indonesia.
