Aljazeera.net correspondents
Khartoum- There has been a growing focus on the security and humanitarian situation in Sudan, following the ongoing fighting that has persisted since April 2023. International warnings about the potential collapse of the state and the risk of famine have intensified.
In parallel to the US State Department urging the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces to restart ceasefire negotiations in Switzerland by mid-August, Djibouti has hosted successive meetings of international and regional powers, alongside international mediators, aimed at ending the conflict in Sudan nearly 16 months after it began.
A two-day meeting among mediators seeking peace in Sudan concluded on Friday with a statement reaffirming the international community’s commitment to supporting Sudan during this crucial period.
The Djibouti Declaration called for an immediate cessation of hostilities, paving the way for a sustainable ceasefire and a comprehensive political process. It emphasized the need for a holistic humanitarian response, civilian protection, and support for displaced persons and refugee communities.
The mediators’ meetings were chaired by Ramtane Lamamra, the Personal Envoy of the UN Secretary-General, with participation from over 20 countries, as well as the African Union, the League of Arab States, the European Union, IGAD, Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and various international observers.
The second consultative meeting to enhance coordination of peace initiatives and efforts in Sudan, which lasted for one day, concluded on Wednesday in Djibouti, issuing a declaration that welcomed the US initiative to facilitate negotiations between the two conflicting parties. Participants expressed concern over the complex humanitarian and security situation in the country.
Welcome and Wait
The US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, announced an invitation on Tuesday for the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces to engage in new negotiations on August 14 in Switzerland, under the sponsorship of the US and Saudi Arabia, and with the supervision of the UN, the African Union, Egypt, and the UAE.
The commander of the Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti”, welcomed the invitation and confirmed his willingness to participate in the talks, while the Sudanese government opted to deliberate and assess the invitation before making a decision regarding its position.
Indirect negotiations that took place in Switzerland last week, mediated by the United Nations, did not yield an agreement between the army and the Rapid Support Forces to deliver humanitarian aid, although both sides made unilateral promises.
Sudanese Foreign Minister Hussein Al-Amin stated during a press conference on Thursday in Port Sudan that, “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has received an invitation from its American counterpart to resume negotiations with the Rapid Support Forces in Switzerland, and is currently consulting with other parties regarding its response in terms of both form and content.”
Regarding the ongoing meetings in Djibouti between international and regional powers to coordinate peace efforts in Sudan, the Undersecretary of Foreign Affairs described the gathering as private and responded, “Sudan was not invited, and it is not of our concern, even though they are discussing initiatives to end the war in our country.”
Diplomatic sources revealed to Al Jazeera Net that the Sudanese government has established a committee to assess Washington’s invitation, involving the Sovereignty Council, the Foreign Ministry, and other official bodies. It is anticipated that US envoy to Sudan, Tom Perriello, will visit Port Sudan next week to discuss making the negotiations successful and to gather insights on his vision for peace from Burhan.
Unpromising History
Al-Hindi Ezz El-Din, editor-in-chief of Al-Majhar newspaper, asserts that the history of the United States with Sudan—from the Naivasha peace negotiations with South Sudan to the Abuja peace talks regarding Darfur and culminating in the sponsorship of the Jeddah platform—has not been encouraging and has not fostered peace, unity, or stability.
According to Ezz El-Din’s remarks to Al Jazeera Net, the Naivasha Agreement resulted in the secession of South Sudan, while Abuja ended with a second rebellion against the president. He noted that the Sudan Liberation Movement led by Arko Minawi in Darfur stated, “The Jeddah platform served as a pretext for the Rapid Support Forces to invade more cities and villages, starting from Nyala, the capital of South Darfur State, and extending to Singa, the capital of Sennar State.”
Washington, a key player in the Jeddah Forum, has observed the escalation of the “Rapid Support Forces rebellion” following the signing of the “Jeddah Declaration” in May 2023, without taking action to restrain it, despite its capabilities to do so, according to the spokesperson.
Ezz El-Din argues that after the President of the Sovereignty Council engaged with Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and began forming connections between Port Sudan and Abu Dhabi, the US rushed to initiate a new negotiation process in the style of Jeddah in Switzerland without disclosing the outcomes of the “Jeddah Declaration” on the ground.
The Swiss negotiations are expected to be fraught with challenges, ultimately leading to “Hemedti” returning to political life in Sudan without achieving a lasting and just peace, similar to what transpired following Naivasha, Abuja, and Jeddah. This is because the American strategy remains consistent, according to the political analyst.
Political researcher Faisal Abdul Karim believes that the international and regional powers have shifted their stance after the stagnation of the peace process in Sudan, spurred by the prolonged crisis, escalating fighting, and potential repercussions on neighboring countries and regional stability. The involvement and competition among regional powers also pose a threat to the state’s integrity.
The US administration is facing criticism from lawmakers in Congress for its failures in Gaza, Ukraine, and Sudan, and seeks to achieve a milestone that could generate momentum for the Democratic Party’s election campaign. Washington is expected to exert pressure on any party obstructing its stated intention to cease hostilities in Sudan.
Current Situation in Sudan: Security and Humanitarian Challenges
Khartoum- The humanitarian and security crisis in Sudan has garnered increased international attention following the outbreak of fighting in April 2023. This conflict has raised alarming concerns about state collapse and widespread famine, compelling various stakeholders to seek resolutions.
International Efforts for Peace: Djibouti and Switzerland Talks
In a bid to restore peace, the US State Department has urged both the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces to re-engage in ceasefire negotiations. Meetings among international and regional powers in Djibouti have been held to coordinate these efforts, resulting in the Djibouti Declaration, which emphasizes the need for an immediate cessation of hostilities.
Key Provisions of the Djibouti Declaration
- Immediate cessation of hostilities
- Establishment of a sustainable ceasefire
- Comprehensive political dialogue
- Urgent humanitarian response
- Protection of civilians and support for displaced populations
The declaration emphasizes the need for a collective humanitarian effort, amidst growing concerns over the deteriorating conditions for civilians caught in the conflict.
Recent Developments: US Secretary of State’s Initiatives
On Tuesday, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken reiterated an invitation for renewed negotiations between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces in Switzerland, scheduled for August 14. This initiative is happening under the oversight of American and Saudi sponsorship, in collaboration with the UN, the African Union, Egypt, and the UAE.
Responses from Key Players
Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as “Hemedti,” the commander of the Rapid Support Forces, has indicated his readiness to participate in the upcoming negotiations. However, the Sudanese government is currently reviewing the invitation to decide its approach.
Indirect negotiations held recently aimed at delivering humanitarian aid fell short, although both parties made unilateral commitments. Meanwhile, Sudanese Foreign Minister Hussein Al-Amin noted that the government is considering the American invitation and consulting relevant parties for feedback.
Challenges in the Peace Process: A Historical Perspective
Al-Hindi Ezz El-Din, editor-in-chief of Al-Majhar newspaper, argues that the history of US involvement in Sudan—from the Naivasha peace process to various negotiations in Darfur—has often resulted in inefficacy. Past agreements have either ended without achieving stability or have fueled further conflicts.
Insights on Past Negotiations
| Negotiation Event | Outcome | Remarks |
|---|---|---|
| Naivasha Agreement | Secession of South Sudan | Failure to unify |
| Abuja Peace Talks | Renewed conflict | Led to further rebellions |
| Jeddah Initiative | Strengthening of Rapid Support Forces | Did not prevent territorial expansion |
Perceptions and Consequences of International Negotiations
Analysts suggest the current round of negotiations, especially after prolonged instability, may lead to Hemedti gaining a political foothold, which could hinder the quest for lasting peace. The intricate interplay of regional powers complicates efforts, as competing interests threaten to destabilize the country further.
Political researcher Faisal Abdul Karim highlights that today’s urgency among international and regional powers stems from the risk of a broader regional fallout due to Sudan’s crisis, emphasizing the need for a united response to the fighting.
International Backlash and Domestic Implications
The US administration faces criticism for its performance in various global conflicts, including Gaza and Ukraine. Lawmakers are pushing for a successful diplomatic achievement in Sudan, hoping it will bolster the Democratic Party’s agenda as elections approach.
The Path Forward: Key Considerations
As the situation unfolds, crucial steps will be necessary for meaningful change: the establishment of trust between conflicting parties, preventive measures against humanitarian crises, and an inclusive approach to political dialogue to ensure all voices are heard. Support from the international community will be vital in addressing immediate needs while striving for long-term stability in Sudan.
Benefits of a Diplomatic Solution
- Reduction in violence and loss of life
- Improved access to humanitarian aid
- Stabilization of regional security
- Restoration of civilian governance
Continued monitoring and adaptability in strategies will be essential as the international community engages with the evolving landscape of Sudan’s conflict.